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Within the likes of any highly contagious and unpredictable disease, lies a predictable and attainable growth rate that researchers can find in order to make logistical conclusions about that particular disease and its affected regions'…

Applications · Statistics 2024-02-05 Julian Bennett , Lauren Eriksen , Xingjie Helen Li

Compartmental models are popular in the mathematics of epidemiology for their simplicity and wide range of applications. Although they are typically solved as initial value problems for a system of ordinary differential equations, the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-10-12 Eduard Campillo-Funollet , Hayley Wragg , James Van Yperen , Duc-Lam Duong , Anotida Madzvamuse

A random network model which allows for tunable, quite general forms of clustering, degree correlation and degree distribution is defined. The model is an extension of the configuration model, in which stubs (half-edges) are paired to form…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-07-31 Frank Ball , Tom Britton , David Sirl

In this paper, we investigate the epidemic spreading for SIR model in weighted scale-free networks with nonlinear infectivity, where the transmission rate in our analytical model is weighted. Concretely, we introduce the infectivity…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-03-06 Xiangwei Chu , Zhongzhi Zhang , Jihong Guan , Shuigeng Zhou

In this paper, we develop a node-based approximate model for Markovian contagion dynamics on networks. We prove that our approximate model is exact for SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) and SEIR…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-08-17 Cameron L. Hall , Bram A. Siebert

In a metapopulation network, infectious diseases spread widely because of the travel of individuals. In the present study, we consider a modified metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with a latent period, which we call…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-08-02 Kazue Kudo , Kanako Mizuno

The SIR model is a three-compartment model of the time development of an epidemic. After normalizing the dependent variables, the model is a system of two non-linear differential equations for the susceptible proportion $S$ and the infected…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-04-27 William G. Faris

We investigate the time-evolution and steady states of the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible(SIRS) epidemic model on one- and two- dimensional lattices. We compare the behavior of this system, obtained from computer…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-11-10 Jaewook Joo , Joel L. Lebowitz

In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-29 Frank G. Ball , David J. Sirl , Pieter Trapman

How does social distancing affect the reach of an epidemic in social networks? We present Monte Carlo simulation results of a capacity constrained Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model. The key modelling feature is that individuals are…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-03-08 Gregory Gutin , Tomohiro Hirano , Sung-Ha Hwang , Philip R. Neary , Alexis Akira Toda

We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-03-03 Michael Bestehorn , Thomas M. Michelitsch , Bernard A. Collet , Alejandro P. Riascos , Andrzej F. Nowakowski

We study a well mixed SIR epidemic model with heterogeneous susceptibility and infectivity, allowing for an arbitrary joint distribution of these traits. Using an exact final size formulation and a branching process approximation for early…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-06 Mohamed El Khalifi

We study the statistical properties of the SIR epidemics in heterogeneous networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size s_c. Using percolation theory to calculate the average…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-11-13 C. Lagorio , M. V. Migueles , L. A. Braunstein , E. López , P. A. Macri

This paper is concerned with stochastic SIR and SEIR epidemic models on random networks in which individuals may rewire away from infected neighbors at some rate $\omega$ (and reconnect to non-infectious individuals with probability…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-11-15 Tom Britton , David Juher , Joan Saldana

We consider a Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) model, where the mechanism for the renewal of susceptibles is demographic, on a ring with next nearest neighbour interactions, and a family of correlated pair approximations (CPA),…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-06-04 Jerome Benoit , Ana Nunes , Margarida Telo da Gama

The quasi-deterministic limit of the generic extinction transition is considered within the framework of standard epidemiological models. The susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model is known to exhibit a transition from extinction to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 David A. Kessler , Nadav M. Shnerb

Identifying highly susceptible individuals in spreading processes is of great significance in controlling outbreaks. In this paper, we explore the susceptibility of people in susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) and rumor spreading…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-20 Shaoting Tang , Xian Teng , Sen Pei , Shu Yan , Zhiming Zheng

The spread of an infectious disease can, in some cases, promote the propagation of other pathogens favouring violent outbreaks, which cause a discontinuous transition to an endemic state. The topology of the contact network plays a crucial…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-03-21 Peng-Bi Cui , Francesca Colaiori , Claudio Castellano

The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its variants form the foundation of our understanding of the spread of diseases. Here, each agent can be in one of three states (susceptible, infected, or recovered), and transitions…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2023-12-25 Claudia Merger , Jasper Albers , Carsten Honerkamp , Moritz Helias

We study the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model in complex networks, considering that not all individuals in the population interact in the same way between them. This heterogeneity between contacts is modeled by a continuous disorder. In…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-01-01 C. Buono , C. Lagorio , P. A. Macri , L. A. Braunstein