Related papers: Exit times for multivariate autoregressive process…

By using the large deviation principle, we investigate the expected exit time from the interval [-1,1] of a process of autoregressive type. The case when the autoregression function f is linear and the innovations have a normal distribution…

We consider the exit problem for a one-dimensional system with random switching near an unstable equilibrium point of the averaged drift. In the infinite switching rate limit, we show that the exit time satisfies a limit theorem with a…

In this paper, we introduce a mathematical apparatus that is relevant for understanding a dynamical system with small random perturbations and coupled with the so-called transmutation process -- where the latter jumps from one mode to…

A variational formula for the asymptotic variance of general Markov processes is obtained. As application, we get a upper bound of the mean exit time of reversible Markov processes, and some comparison theorems between the reversible and…

The problem of noise-induced escape from a metastable state arises in physics, chemistry, biology, systems engineering, and other areas. The problem is well understood when the underlying dynamics of the system obey detailed balance. When…

The Large Deviation Principle is established for stochastic models defined by past-dependent non linear recursions with small noise. In the Markov case we use the result to obtain an explicit expression for the asymptotics of exit time.

We consider the first exit time of a nonnegative Harris-recurrent Markov process from the interval $[0,A]$ as $A\to\infty$. We provide an alternative method of proof of asymptotic exponentiality of the first exit time (suitably…

This paper investigates the exit-time problem for time-inhomogeneous diffusion processes. The focus is on the small-noise behavior of the exit time from a bounded positively invariant domain. We demonstrate that, when the drift and…

The main results in this paper concern large deviations for families of non-Gaussian processes obtained as suitable perturbations of continuous centered multivariate Gaussian processes which satisfy a large deviation principle. We present…

Stochastic systems characterised by a random driving in a form of the general stable noise are considered. The particle experiences long rests due to the traps the density of which is position-dependent and obeys a power-law form attributed…

For non-Gaussian stochastic dynamical systems, mean exit time and escape probability are important deterministic quantities, which can be obtained from integro-differential (nonlocal) equations. We develop an efficient and convergent…

A multivariate, stationary time series is said to be jointly regularly varying if all its finite-dimensional distributions are multivariate regularly varying. This property is shown to be equivalent to weak convergence of the conditional…

The paper introduces novel methodologies for the identification of coefficients of switched autoregressive and switched autoregressive exogenous linear models. We consider cases which system's outputs are contaminated by possibly large…

We describe the asymptotic behavior of the number $Z_n[a_n,\infty)$ of individuals with a large value in a stable bifurcating autoregressive process. The study of the associated first moment $\mathbb{E}(Z_n[a_n,\infty))$ is equivalent to…

We use the mean exit time to quantify macroscopic dynamical behaviors of stochastic dynamical systems driven by tempered L\'evy fluctuations, which are solutions of nonlocal elliptic equations. Firstly, we construct a new numerical scheme…

The question whether a time series behaves as a random walk or as a station- ary process is an important and delicate problem, particularly arising in financial statistics, econometrics, and engineering. This paper studies the problem to…

We study the exit-time of a self-interacting diffusion from an open domain $G \subset \mathbb{R}^d$. In particular, we consider the equation $d{X_t} = - \left( \nabla V(X_t) + \frac{1}{t}\int_0^t\nabla F (X_t - X_s)d{s} \right) d{t} +…

We provide Large Deviation estimates for the bridge of a $d$-dimensional general diffusion process as the conditioning time tends to $0$ and apply these results to the evaluation of the asymptotics of its exit time probabilities. We are…

We analyze the finite sample regret of a decreasing step size stochastic gradient algorithm. We assume correlated noise and use a perturbed Lyapunov function as a systematic approach for the analysis. Finally we analyze the escape time of…

By appealing to renewal theory we determine the equations that the mean exit time of a continuous-time random walk with drift satisfies both when the present coincides with a jump instant or when it does not. Particular attention is paid to…