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Prediction markets are powerful tools to elicit and aggregate beliefs from strategic agents. However, in current prediction markets, agents may exhaust the social welfare by competing to be the first to update the market. We initiate the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-03-09 Grant Schoenebeck , Chenkai Yu , Fang-Yi Yu

Prediction markets are designed to elicit information from multiple agents in order to predict (obtain probabilities for) future events. A good prediction market incentivizes agents to reveal their information truthfully; such incentive…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2012-05-14 Vincent Conitzer

We consider the design of private prediction markets, financial markets designed to elicit predictions about uncertain events without revealing too much information about market participants' actions or beliefs. Our goal is to design market…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-02-25 Rachel Cummings , David M. Pennock , Jennifer Wortman Vaughan

Traditional economic models typically treat private information, or signals, as generated from some underlying state. Recent work has explicated alternative models, where signals correspond to interpretations of available information. We…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2012-02-20 Michael P. Wellman , Lu Hong , Scott E. Page

Decision markets are mechanisms for selecting one among a set of actions based on forecasts about their consequences. Decision markets that are based on scoring rules have been proven to offer incentive compatibility analogous to properly…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-11-16 Wenlong Wang , Thomas Pfeiffer

Designing secure information infrastructure is a function of design and usability. However, security is seldom given priority when systems are being developed. Secure design practices should balance between functionality (i.e., proper…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2024-03-21 Niroop Sugunaraj

Although both data availability and the demand for accurate forecasts are increasing, collaboration between stakeholders is often constrained by data ownership and competitive interests. In contrast to recent proposals within cooperative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Michael Vitali , Pierre Pinson

We consider a market of risky financial assets whose participants are an informed trader, a representative uninformed trader, and noisy liquidity providers. We prove the existence of a market-clearing equilibrium when the insider…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-02 Michail Anthropelos , Scott Robertson

An information broker incentivizes consumers to share their information, while designing an information structure to shape the market segmentation. The information broker is a metaphor for an Internet platform that matches consumers with…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-03-26 Junjie Chen , Takuro Yamashita

We present a mechanism design, coupling an online collaboration software and a prediction market, which allows tracking down the very roots of individual incentives, actions and how these behaviors influence collective intelligence in terms…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2014-07-01 Thomas Maillart , Didier Sornette

We study information disclosure in competitive markets with adverse selection. Sellers privately observe product quality, with higher quality entailing higher production costs, while buyers trade at the market-clearing price after observing…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-10-03 Andrea Di Giovan Paolo , Jose Higueras

We outline how to create a mechanism that provides an optimal way to elicit, from an arbitrary group of experts, the probability of the truth of an arbitrary logical proposition together with collective information that has an explicit form…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-09-04 Alexey V. Osipov , Nikolay N. Osipov

In many settings -- like market research and social choice -- people may be presented with unfamiliar options. Classical mechanisms may perform poorly because they fail to incentivize people to learn about these options, or worse, encourage…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-07-22 Modibo K. Camara , Nicole Immorlica , Brendan Lucier

Private signals model noisy information about an unknown state. Although these signals are called "private," they may still carry information about each other. Our paper introduces the concept of private private signals, which contain…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-05-06 Kevin He , Fedor Sandomirskiy , Omer Tamuz

We introduce \emph{informational punishment} to the design of mechanisms that compete with an exogenous status quo mechanism: Players can send garbled public messages with some delay, and others cannot commit to ignoring them. Optimal…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-04-04 Benjamin Balzer , Johannes Schneider

An asymmetric information model is introduced for the situation in which there is a small agent who is more susceptible to the flow of information in the market than the general market participant, and who tries to implement strategies…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2013-01-31 Dorje C. Brody , Mark H. A. Davis , Robyn L. Friedman , Lane P. Hughston

We study mechanism design settings where the planner has an interest in agents receiving noisy signals about the types of other agents. We show that additional information about other agents can eliminate undesired equilibria, making it…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-06-24 Eric Yan

The explosive growth of data has highlighted its critical role in driving economic growth through data marketplaces, which enable extensive data sharing and access to high-quality datasets. To support effective trading, signaling mechanisms…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-11-12 Li Peng , Jiayao Zhang , Yihang Wu , Weiran Liu , Jinfei Liu , Zheng Yan , Kui Ren , Lei Zhang , Lin Qu

We study a game of strategic information design between a sender, who chooses state-dependent information structures, a mediator who can then garble the signals generated from these structures, and a receiver who takes an action after…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-12-07 Andrew Kosenko

We study strategic interactions in a broker-mediated market in which agents learn and exploit each other's private information. A broker provides liquidity to an informed trader and to noise traders while managing inventory in a lit market.…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-21 Alif Aqsha , Fayçal Drissi , Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt
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