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Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-11-19 Xiao-Long Peng , Michael Small , Xin-Jian Xu , Xinchu Fu

We consider evoSIR, a variant of the SIR model, on Erd\H os-Renyi random graphs in which susceptibles with an infected neighbor break that connection at rate $\rho$ and rewire to a randomly chosen individual. We compute the critical…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-23 Yufeng Jiang , Remy Kassem , Grayson York , Matthew Junge , Rick Durrett

Capturing the structure of a population and characterising contacts within the population are key to reliable projections of infectious disease. Two main elements of population structure -- contact heterogeneity and age -- have been…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-03-17 Luke Murray Kearney , Emma L. Davis , Matt J. Keeling

We study the supercritical contact process on Galton-Watson trees and periodic trees. We prove that if the contact process survives weakly then it dominates a supercritical Crump-Mode-Jagers branching process. Hence the number of infected…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-12 Xiangying Huang

In this paper we are concerned with the Susceptible-Infective-Removed model with random transition rates on complete graphs $C_n$ with $n$ vertices. We assign i. i. d. copies of a positive random variable $\xi$ on each vertex as the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-21 Xiaofeng Xue

The spread of an infection on a real-world social network is determined by the interplay of two processes: the dynamics of the network, whose structure changes over time according to the encounters between individuals, and the dynamics on…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-10-28 Lorenzo Coviello , Massimo Franceschetti , Manuel Garcia-Herranz , Iyad Rahwan

We study the deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on weighted graphs. In their numerical study [10] van Mieghem et al. have shown that it is possible to learn an estimated network from a finite time sample of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-07-09 Dániel Keliger , Illés Horváth

We study the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random graph chosen uniformly over all graphs with certain critical, heavy-tailed degree distributions. For this model, each vertex infects all its susceptible neighbors and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-14 David Clancy

We study the contact process on a class of evolving scale-free networks, where each node updates its connections at independent random times. We give a rigorous mathematical proof that there is a transition between a phase where for all…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-03 Emmanuel Jacob , Peter Mörters

Epidemic propagation on complex networks has been widely investigated, mostly with invariant parameters. However, the process of epidemic propagation is not always constant. Epidemics can be affected by various perturbations, and may bounce…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-09-13 Dan Lu , Shunkun Yang , Jiaquan Zhang , Huijuan Wang , Daqing Li

Our main goal is to examine the role of communities in epidemic spread in a random graph model. More precisely, we consider a random graph model which consists of overlapping complete graphs, representing households, workplaces, school…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-08-25 Ágnes Backhausz , György J. Székely

Contacts between individuals serve as pathways where infections may propagate. These contact patterns can be represented by network structures. Static structures have been the common modeling paradigm but recent results suggest that…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-04-25 Luis Enrique Correa Rocha , Adeline Decuyper , Vincent D Blondel

When an epidemic spreads in a population, individuals may adaptively change the structure of their social contact network to reduce risk of infection. Here we study the spread of an epidemic on an adaptive network with community structure.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-12-14 Ilker Tunc , Leah B. Shaw

Data describing human interactions often suffer from incomplete sampling of the underlying population. As a consequence, the study of contagion processes using data-driven models can lead to a severe underestimation of the epidemic risk.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-11-19 Mathieu Génois , Christian L. Vestergaard , Ciro Cattuto , Alain Barrat

I study the spreading of infectious diseases on heterogeneous populations. I represent the population structure by a contact-graph where vertices represent agents and edges represent disease transmission channels among them. The population…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-11-13 Alexei Vazquez

Correlation analysis is a fundamental problem in statistics. In this paper, we consider the correlation detection problem between a pair of Erdos-Renyi graphs. Specifically, the problem is formulated as a hypothesis testing problem: under…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Dong Huang , Pengkun Yang

This paper is focused on SIS (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible) epidemic dynamics (also known as the contact process) on populations modelled by homogeneous Poisson point processes of the Euclidean plane, where the infection rate of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-19 François Baccelli , Nithin Ramesan

For rapidly spreading diseases where many cases show no symptoms, swift and effective contact tracing is essential. While exposure notification applications provide alerts on potential exposures, a fully automated system is needed to track…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-01-31 Sofia Hurtado , Radu Marculescu

Acute infectious diseases are transmitted over networks of social contacts. Epidemic models are used to predict the spread of emergent pathogens and compare intervention strategies. Many of these models assume equal probability of contact…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-25 Gail E. Potter , Niel Hens

We couple a multi-type stochastic epidemic process with a directed random graph, where edges have random lengths. This random graph representation is used to characterise the fractions of individuals infected by the different types of…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-29 Tom Britton , Ka Yin Leung , Pieter Trapman
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