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A novel optimisation framework through quadratic nonlinear projection is introduced for credit portfolio when the portfolio risk is measured by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). The whole optimisation procedure to search toward the optimal…
We analyse and explain the increased generalisation performance of iterate averaging using a Gaussian process perturbation model between the true and batch risk surface on the high dimensional quadratic. We derive three phenomena…
We here consider the subset simulation method which approaches a failure event using a decreasing sequence of nested intermediate failure events. The method resembles importance sampling, which actively explores a probability space by…
We propose a least-squares method involving the recovery of the gradient and possibly the Hessian for elliptic equation in nondivergence form. As our approach is based on the Lax--Milgram theorem with the curl-free constraint built into the…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a well-known nonparametric Bayesian inference technique, but they suffer from scalability problems for large sample sizes, and their performance can degrade for non-stationary or spatially heterogeneous data. In…
A numerical dynamical low-rank approximation (DLRA) scheme for the solution of the Vlasov-Poisson equation is presented. Based on the formulation of the DLRA equations as Friedrichs' systems in a continuous setting, it combines recently…
The aim of this paper is to propose diffusion strategies for distributed estimation over adaptive networks, assuming the presence of spatially correlated measurements distributed according to a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) model. The…
This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of financial time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient…
Gaussian process (GP) regression is a flexible, nonparametric approach to regression that naturally quantifies uncertainty. In many applications, the number of responses and covariates are both large, and a goal is to select covariates that…
We present a discrete time stochastic volatility model in which the conditional distribution of the logreturns is a Variance-Gamma, that is a normal variance-mean mixture with Gamma mixing density. We assume that the Gamma mixing density is…
We test various volatility models using the Bitcoin spot price series. Our models include HIST, EMA ARCH, GARCH, and EGARCH, models. Both of our in-sample-fit and out-of-sample-forecast results suggest that GARCH and EGARCH models perform…
Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…
Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…
We introduce a general framework for large-scale model-based derivative-free optimization based on iterative minimization within random subspaces. We present a probabilistic worst-case complexity analysis for our method, where in particular…
Modeling counterparty risk is computationally challenging because it requires the simultaneous evaluation of all the trades with each counterparty under both market and credit risk. We present a multi-Gaussian process regression approach,…
Rough stochastic volatility models have attracted a lot of attentions recently, in particular for the linear option pricing problem. In this paper, starting with power utilities, we propose to use a martingale distortion representation of…
We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that is designed to sample from target distributions with irregular geometry using an adaptive scheme. In cases where targets exhibit non-Gaussian behaviour, we propose that adaption…
This work characterizes the benefits of averaging schemes widely used in conjunction with stochastic gradient descent (SGD). In particular, this work provides a sharp analysis of: (1) mini-batching, a method of averaging many samples of a…
We reconsider the problem of option pricing using historical probability distributions. We first discuss how the risk-minimisation scheme proposed recently is an adequate starting point under the realistic assumption that price increments…
Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible class of priors for nonparametric Bayesian regression, but popular GP posterior inference methods are typically prohibitively slow or lack desirable finite-data guarantees on quality. We develop an…