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The logistic birth and death process is perhaps the simplest stochastic population model that has both density-dependent reproduction, and a phase transition, and a lot can be learned about the process by studying its extinction time,…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-22 Eric Foxall

We finely describe the "coming down from infinity" for birth and death processes which eventually become extinct. Our biological motivation is to study the decrease of regulated populations which are initially large. Under general…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-29 Vincent Bansaye , Sylvie Méléard , Mathieu Richard

Let $T$ be the extinction moment of a critical branching process $Z=(Z_{n},n\geq 0) $ in a random environment specified by iid probability generating functions. We study the asymptotic behavior of the probability of extinction of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-09-08 V. A. Vatutin V. Wachtel

To study later spatial evolutionary games based on the multitype contact process, we first focus in this paper on the conditions for survival/extinction in the presence of only one strategy, in which case our model consists of a variant of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-09 Jonas Köppl , Nicolas Lanchier , Max Mercer

I study a population model in which the reproduction rate lambda is inherited with mutation, favoring fast reproducers in the short term, but conflicting with a process that eliminates agglomerations of individuals. The model is a variant…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-06-02 Ronald Dickman

We consider extinction times for a class of birth-death processes commonly found in applications, where there is a control parameter which determines whether the population quickly becomes extinct, or rather persists for a long time. We…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Charles R. Doering , Khachik V. Sargsyan , Leonard M. Sander

Extinction is the ultimate absorbing state of any stochastic birth-death process, hence the time to extinction is an important characteristic of any natural population. Here we consider logistic and logistic-like systems under the combined…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-03-27 Yitzhak Yahalom , Nadav M. Shnerb

Let $\omega=(\omega_i)_{i\in\mathbb Z}=(\mu^{L}_i,...,\mu^{1}_i,\lambda_i)_{i\in \mathbb Z}$, which serves as the environment, be a sequence of i.i.d. random nonnegative vectors, with $L\ge1$ a positive integer. We study birth and death…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-15 Hua-Ming Wang

Consider a supercritical branching random walk in a time-inhomogeneous random environment. We impose a selection (called barrier) on survival in the following way. The position of the barrier may depend on the generation and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-02 You Lv

Competitive birth-death processes often exhibit an oscillatory behavior. We investigate a particular case where the oscillation cycles are marginally stable on the mean-field level. An iconic example of such a system is the Lotka-Volterra…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-13 Matthew Parker , Alex Kamenev

Population dynamics reflects an underlying birth-death process, where the rates associated with different events may depend on external environmental conditions and on the population density. A whole family of simple and popular…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-07-03 Yitzhak Yahalom , Bnaya Steinmetz , Nadav M. Shnerb

We introduce an interacting particle system which models the inherited sterility method. Individuals evolve on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ according to a contact process with parameter $\lambda>0$. With probability $p \in [0,1]$ an offspring is fertile…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Sonia Velasco

We introduce a class of branching processes in which the reproduction or lifetime distribution at a given time depends on the total cumulative number of individuals who have been born in the population until that time. We focus on a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-03 Sophie Hautphenne , Minyuan Li

In order to model random density-dependence in population dynamics, we construct the random analogue of the well-known logistic process in the branching process' framework. This density-dependence corresponds to intraspecific competition…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Amaury Lambert

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-23 Graham Brightwell , Thomas House , Malwina Luczak

We finely describe the speed of "coming down from infinity" for birth and death processes which eventually become extinct. Under general assumptions on the birth and death rates, we firstly determine the behavior of the successive hitting…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-01 Vincent Bansaye , Sylvie Méléard , Mathieu Richard

Conditions for almost sure extinction are studied in discrete time branching processes with an infinite number of types. It is not assumed that the expected number of children is a bounded function of the parent's type. There might also be…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 G. T. Tetzlaff

Motivated by modeling the dynamics of a population living in a flowing medium where the environmental factors are random in space, we have studied an asymmetric variant of the one-dimensional contact process, where the quenched random…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-06-16 Róbert Juhász

We study continuous-time birth-death type processes, where individuals have independent and identically distributed lifetimes, according to a random variable Q, with E[Q]=1, and where the birth rate if the population is currently in state…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-08-05 Frank Ball , Tom Britton , Peter Neal

We study an immigration effect in the time-changed linear birth-death process where the immigration occurs only if the population goes extinct. We call this process as the time-fractional linear birth-death process with immigration…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-15 K. K. Kataria , P. Vishwakarma
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