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Predictive distributions need to be aggregated when probabilistic forecasts are merged, or when expert opinions expressed in terms of probability distributions are fused. We take a prediction space approach that applies to discrete, mixed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-06-09 Tilmann Gneiting , Roopesh Ranjan

Lin's condition is used to establish the moment determinacy/indeterminacy of absolutely continuous probability distributions. Recently, a number of papers related to Lin's condition for functions of random variables have emerged. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-21 Alexander Il'inskii , Sofiya Ostrovska

In probability theory, there is a tendency to treat one random variable with a given distribution as being just as good as any other. By and large this is fine because probability is (mostly) concerned with distributional properties of…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-31 Douglas Rizzolo

We consider a class of observation-driven Poisson count processes where the current value of the accompanying intensity process depends on previous values of both processes. We show under a contractive condition that the bivariate process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-01-06 Michael H. Neumann

The zero-truncated Poisson distributions are certain discrete probability distributions whose supports are the set of positive integers, which are also known as the conditional Poisson distributions or the positive Poisson distributions. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-11 Taekyun Kim , Dae san Kim , Si-Hyeon Lee , Seong-Ho Park , Lee-Chae jang

Set-valued quantiles for multivariate distributions with respect to a general convex cone are introduced which are based on a family of (univariate) distribution functions rather than on the joint distribution function. It is shown that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-14 Andreas H Hamel , Daniel Kostner

Probability forecasting is common in the geosciences, the finance sector, and elsewhere. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability-forecasts for the same target. How is the information in these multiple forecast systems…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-02 Sarah Higgins , Hailiang Du , Leonard A. Smith

This paper provides closed-form expansions for the log-likelihood function of multivariate diffusions sampled at discrete time intervals. The coefficients of the expansion are calculated explicitly by exploiting the special structure…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Yacine Aït-Sahalia

We assume that we have multiple ordinal time series and we would like to specify their joint distribution. In general it is difficult to create multivariate distribution that can be easily used to jointly model ordinal variables and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Anna Nalpantidi , Dimitris Karlis

Maximum likelihood estimators are often of limited practical use due to the intensive computation they require. We propose a family of alternative estimators that maximize a stochastic variation of the composite likelihood function. Each of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2010-03-04 Joshua V Dillon , Guy Lebanon

We study sums of independent random variables that take values $0$, $1/2$, or $1$. We show that the probability mass function of the sum splits into two interleaved parts: one supported on the integers and the other supported on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-11 Mark Broadie , Ina Petkova

Multivariate rapid variation describes decay rates of joint light tails of a multivariate distribution. We impose a local uniformity condition to control decay variation of distribution tails along different directions, and using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-30 Haijun Li

The aim of the present work is to show that the results obtained earlier on the approximation of distributions of sums of independent summands by the accompanying compound Poisson laws and the estimates of the proximity of sequential…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-04 Friedrich Götze , Andrei Yu. Zaitsev

Using Chen-Stein method in combination with size-biased couplings, we obtain the multivariate Poisson approximation in terms of the Wasserstein distance. As applications, we study the multivariate Poisson approximation of the distribution…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-23 Eulalia Nualart , Rui-Ray Zhang

Multivariate Analysis is an increasingly common tool in experimental high energy physics; however, many of the common approaches were borrowed from other fields. We clarify what the goal of a multivariate algorithm should be for the search…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-11-18 Kyle S. Cranmer

Parametric distributions are an important part of statistics. There is now a voluminous literature on different fascinating formulations of flexible distributions. We present a selective and brief overview of a small subset of these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-15 Sharon X. Lee , Geoffrey J. McLachlan

Multivariate random fields whose distributions are invariant under operator-scalings in both time-domain and state space are studied. Such random fields are called operator-self-similar random fields and their scaling operators are…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-08-08 Yuqiang Li , Yimin Xiao

The idea behind Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution was used in [J. de la Cal, F. Luquin, J. Approx. Theory, 68(3), 1992, 322-329] and subsequent papers in order to establish the convergence of suitable sequences of positive…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-18 Ana-Maria Acu , Margareta Heilmann , Ioan Rasa , Andra Seserman

Sufficient conditions are developed, under which the compound Poisson distribution has maximal entropy within a natural class of probability measures on the nonnegative integers. Recently, one of the authors [O. Johnson, {\em Stoch. Proc.…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2013-03-20 Oliver Johnson , Ioannis Kontoyiannis , Mokshay Madiman

In this paper, we propose a new class of distributions by exponentiating the random variables associated with the probability density functions of composite distributions. We also derive some mathematical properties of this new class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-05 Bowen Liu , Malwane M. A. Ananda
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