On the structure of the Poisson trinomial distribution
Probability
2026-03-11 v1
Abstract
We study sums of independent random variables that take values , , or . We show that the probability mass function of the sum splits into two interleaved parts: one supported on the integers and the other supported on the half-integers. Each part, when normalized, is a Poisson binomial distribution and hence log-concave with one or two modes. We also prove that each of the two conditional means (conditioning on being an integer or a half-integer) lies within of the unconditional mean. As a consequence, any two modes of the two conditional distributions are within of each other.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2603.09019,
title = {On the structure of the Poisson trinomial distribution},
author = {Mark Broadie and Ina Petkova},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.09019},
year = {2026}
}