English

On the structure of the Poisson trinomial distribution

Probability 2026-03-11 v1

Abstract

We study sums of independent random variables that take values 00, 1/21/2, or 11. We show that the probability mass function of the sum splits into two interleaved parts: one supported on the integers and the other supported on the half-integers. Each part, when normalized, is a Poisson binomial distribution and hence log-concave with one or two modes. We also prove that each of the two conditional means (conditioning on being an integer or a half-integer) lies within 1/21/2 of the unconditional mean. As a consequence, any two modes of the two conditional distributions are within 5/25/2 of each other.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2603.09019,
  title  = {On the structure of the Poisson trinomial distribution},
  author = {Mark Broadie and Ina Petkova},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.09019},
  year   = {2026}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T11:11:23.609Z