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We develop constrained Bayesian estimation methods for small area problems: those requiring smoothness with respect to similarity across areas, such as geographic proximity or clustering by covariates; and benchmarking constraints,…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-28 Rebecca C. Steorts

The normalizing constant plays an important role in Bayesian computation, and there is a large literature on methods for computing or approximating normalizing constants that cannot be evaluated in closed form. When the normalizing constant…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-02 Yuling Yao , Collin Cademartori , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

We propose a novel adaptive empirical Bayesian method for sparse deep learning, where the sparsity is ensured via a class of self-adaptive spike-and-slab priors. The proposed method works by alternatively sampling from an adaptive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-15 Wei Deng , Xiao Zhang , Faming Liang , Guang Lin

The global optimization of a high-dimensional black-box function under black-box constraints is a pervasive task in machine learning, control, and engineering. These problems are challenging since the feasible set is typically non-convex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 David Eriksson , Matthias Poloczek

Bayesian max-margin models have shown superiority in various practical applications, such as text categorization, collaborative prediction, social network link prediction and crowdsourcing, and they conjoin the flexibility of Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-19 Wenbo Hu , Jun Zhu , Bo Zhang

We propose a multidimensional smoothing spline algorithm in the context of manifold learning. We generalize the bending energy penalty of thin-plate splines to a quadratic form on the Sobolev space of a flat manifold, based on the Frobenius…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-13 Juno Kim

When approximating the expectations of a functional of a solution to a stochastic differential equation, the numerical performance of deterministic quadrature methods, such as sparse grid quadrature and quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods, may…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-24 Christian Bayer , Chiheb Ben Hammouda , Raúl Tempone

Smoothing of noisy sample covariances is an important component in functional data analysis. We propose a novel covariance smoothing method based on penalized splines and associated software. The proposed method is a bivariate spline…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-07 Luo Xiao , Cai Li , William Checkley , Ciprian M. Crainiceanu

This paper examines Bayesian belief network inference using simulation as a method for computing the posterior probabilities of network variables. Specifically, it examines the use of a method described by Henrion, called logic sampling,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-11 Homer L. Chin , Gregory F. Cooper

Statistical models can involve implicitly defined quantities, such as solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), that unavoidably need to be numerically approximated in order to evaluate the model. The approximation…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-16 Juho Timonen , Nikolas Siccha , Ben Bales , Harri Lähdesmäki , Aki Vehtari

Bayesian optimization has become a popular method for high-throughput computing, like the design of computer experiments or hyperparameter tuning of expensive models, where sample efficiency is mandatory. In these applications, distributed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-08 Javier Garcia-Barcos , Ruben Martinez-Cantin

We provide a numerically robust and fast method capable of exploiting the local geometry when solving large-scale stochastic optimisation problems. Our key innovation is an auxiliary variable construction coupled with an inverse Hessian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-14 Adrian Wills , Thomas Schön

Building surrogate models is one common approach when we attempt to learn unknown black-box functions. Bayesian optimization provides a framework which allows us to build surrogate models based on sequential samples drawn from the function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-17 Hengrui Luo , James W. Demmel , Younghyun Cho , Xiaoye S. Li , Yang Liu

Variable selection for structured covariates lying on an underlying known graph is a problem motivated by practical applications, and has been a topic of increasing interest. However, most of the existing methods may not be scalable to high…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-27 Changgee Chang , Suprateek Kundu , Qi Long

The graph structure of a Bayesian network (BN) can be learned from data using the well-known score-and-search approach. Previous work has shown that incorporating structured representations of the conditional probability distributions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Charupriya Sharma , Peter van Beek

This paper is concerned with a class of stochastic differential equations with Markovian switching. The Malliavin calculus is used to study the smoothness of the density of the solution under a H\"{o}rmander type condition. Furthermore, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-20 Yaozhong Hu , David Nualart , Xiaobin Sun , Yingchao Xie

Stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are increasingly used to account for the inherent stochasticity exhibited by interacting populations of species in areas such as epidemiology, population ecology and systems biology. Species numbers are…

Computation · Statistics 2023-04-06 Tom E. Lowe , Andrew Golightly , Chris Sherlock

Gaussian curvature is an important geometric property of surfaces, which has been used broadly in mathematical modeling. Due to the full nonlinearity of the Gaussian curvature, efficient numerical methods for models based on it are uncommon…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-17 Hao Liu , Xue-Cheng Tai , Roland Glowinski

In many classification problems it is desirable to output well-calibrated probabilities on the different classes. We propose a robust, non-parametric method of calibrating probabilities called SplineCalib that utilizes smoothing splines to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-21 Brian Lucena

Models defined by stochastic differential equations (SDEs) allow for the representation of random variability in dynamical systems. The relevance of this class of models is growing in many applied research areas and is already a standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-06 Umberto Picchini