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This article introduces novel and practicable Bayesian factor analysis frameworks that are computationally feasible for moderate to large spatiotemporal data. Previous Bayesian analysis of spatiotemporal data has utilized a Bayesian factor…
Given a data set (t_i, y_i), i=1,..., n with the t_i in [0,1] non-parametric regression is concerned with the problem of specifying a suitable function f_n:[0,1] -> R such that the data can be reasonably approximated by the points (t_i,…
We use a rank one Gaussian perturbation to derive a smooth stochastic approximation of the maximum eigenvalue function. We then combine this smoothing result with an optimal smooth stochastic optimization algorithm to produce an efficient…
The number of modes in a probability density function is representative of the complexity of a model and can also be viewed as the number of subpopulations. Despite its relevance, there has been limited research in this area. A novel…
A crucial task in system identification problems is the selection of the most appropriate model class, and is classically addressed resorting to cross-validation or using asymptotic arguments. As recently suggested in the literature, this…
Bayesian inference methods are applied within a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to the problems of joint state and parameter estimation, and of state forecasting. We explore and demonstrate the ideas in the context of a simple…
In the current era of big data, researchers routinely collect and analyze data of super-large sample sizes. Data-oriented statistical methods have been developed to extract information from super-large data. Smoothing spline ANOVA (SSANOVA)…
The paradigm of differentiable programming has significantly enhanced the scope of machine learning via the judicious use of gradient-based optimization. However, standard differentiable programming methods (such as autodiff) typically…
This paper discusses a general framework for smoothing parameter estimation for models with regular likelihoods constructed in terms of unknown smooth functions of covariates. Gaussian random effects and parametric terms may also be…
In this paper we investigate the problem of controlling a partially observed stochastic dynamical system such that its state is difficult to infer using a (fixed-interval) Bayesian smoother. This problem arises naturally in applications in…
Neural network ensembles, such as Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), have shown success in the areas of uncertainty estimation and robustness. However, a crucial challenge prohibits their use in practice. BNNs require a large number of…
Consider an It\^{o} process $X$ satisfying the stochastic differential equation $dX=a(X)\,dt+b(X)\,dW$ where $a,b$ are smooth and $W$ is a multidimensional Brownian motion. Suppose that $W_n$ has smooth sample paths and that $W_n$ converges…
As an important Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) algorithm has achieved great success in Bayesian learning and posterior sampling. However, SGLD typically suffers from slow convergence…
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…
We consider Bayesian analysis of a class of multiple changepoint models. While there are a variety of efficient ways to analyse these models if the parameters associated with each segment are independent, there are few general approaches…
Bayesian network classifiers (BNCs) possess a number of properties desirable for a modern classifier: They are easily interpretable, highly scalable, and offer adaptable complexity. However, traditional methods for learning BNCs have…
We propose an alternative approach towards cost mitigation in volatility-managed portfolios based on smoothing the predictive density of an otherwise standard stochastic volatility model. Specifically, we develop a novel variational Bayes…
Differentiable simulation is a promising toolkit for fast gradient-based policy optimization and system identification. However, existing approaches to differentiable simulation have largely tackled scenarios where obtaining smooth…
This paper introduces a general method to approximate the convolution of an arbitrary program with a Gaussian kernel. This process has the effect of smoothing out a program. Our compiler framework models intermediate values in the program…
We propose a novel algorithm that extends the methods of ball smoothing and Gaussian smoothing for noisy derivative-free optimization by accounting for the heterogeneous curvature of the objective function. The algorithm dynamically adapts…