Related papers: How big is too big? Critical Shocks for Systemic F…
We consider power line outages in the transmission system of the power grid, and specifically those caused by a natural disaster or a large scale physical attack. In the transmission system, an outage of a line may lead to overload on other…
Systemic risk refers to the risk that the financial system is susceptible to failures due to the characteristics of the system itself. The tremendous cost of systemic risk requires the design and implementation of tools for the efficient…
The risk of systemic war seems dependant on the level of criticality and sensitivity of the International System, and the system's conditions. The level of criticality and sensitivity is dependant on the developmental stage of the…
In this paper we study the Motter-Lai model of cascading failures induced by overloads in both isotropic and anisotropic spatial networks, generated by placing nodes in a square lattice and using various distributions of link lengths and…
We introduce a new class of (dynamical) systems that inherently capture cascading effects (viewed as consequential effects) and are naturally amenable to combinations. We develop an axiomatic general theory around those systems, and guide…
This systemic risk paper introduces inhomogeneous random financial networks (IRFNs). Such models are intended to describe parts, or the entirety, of a highly heterogeneous network of banks and their interconnections, in the global financial…
Models of how things spread often assume that transmission mechanisms are fixed over time. However, social contagions--the spread of ideas, beliefs, innovations--can lose or gain in momentum as they spread: ideas can get reinforced, beliefs…
We study a model for cascade effects over finite networks based on a deterministic binary linear threshold model. Our starting point is a networked coordination game where each agent's payoff is the sum of the payoffs coming from pairwise…
Multilayer networked systems are ubiquitous in nature and engineering, and the robustness of these systems against failures is of great interest. A main line of theoretical pursuit has been percolation induced cascading failures, where…
The presence of a period-doubling cascade in dynamical systems that depend on a parameter is one of the basic routes to chaos. It is rarely mentioned that there are virtually always infinitely many cascades whenever there is one. We report…
Biological information processing is often carried out by complex networks of interconnected dynamical units. A basic question about such networks is that of reliability: if the same signal is presented many times with the network in…
Despite the huge interest in network resilience to stress, most of the studies have concentrated on internal stress damaging network structure (e.g., node removals). Here we study how networks respond to environmental stress deteriorating…
We study the finite-size scaling behaviour at the critical point, resulting from the addition of a homogeneous size-dependent perturbation, decaying as an inverse power of the system size. The scaling theory is first formulated in a general…
If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no…
Correlations and other collective phenomena in a schematic model of heterogeneous binary agents (individual spin-glass samples) are considered on the complete graph and also on 2d and 3d regular lattices. The system's stochastic dynamics is…
In this work, cascading transmission line failures are studied through a dynamical model of the power system operating under fixed conditions. The power grid is modeled as a stochastic dynamical system where first-principles…
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erd\H{o}s Renyi network models where each node, representing bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use…
Localized shocks arising from climate extremes, geopolitical conflicts, and trade protectionism cascade through trade networks, triggering global food crises. Cross-product substitution, a critical response strategy, induces cross-product…
The DebtRank algorithm has been increasingly investigated as a method to estimate the impact of shocks in financial networks, as it overcomes the limitations of the traditional default-cascade approaches. Here we formulate a dynamical…
From biotechnology to cyber-risks, most extreme technological risks cannot be reliably estimated from historical statistics. Therefore, engineers resort to predictive methods, such as fault/event trees in the framework of probabilistic…