Related papers: How big is too big? Critical Shocks for Systemic F…
We present a framework to calculate the cascade size evolution for a large class of cascade models on random network ensembles in the limit of infinite network size. Our method is exact and applies to network ensembles with almost arbitrary…
Transport in complex networks can describe a variety of natural and human-engineered processes including biological, societal and technological ones. However, how the properties of the source and drain nodes can affect transport subject to…
People often learn from other's actions when they make decisions while doing online shopping. This kind of observational learning may lead to information cascades, which means agents might ignore their own signals and follow the 'trend'…
Complex, interdependent systems are necessary to the delivery of goods and services critical to societal function. Here we demonstrate how interdependent systems respond to disruptions. Specifically, we change the spatial arrangement of a…
Interdependent networks are characterized by two kinds of interactions: The usual connectivity links within each network and the dependency links coupling nodes of different networks. Due to the latter links such networks are known to…
Resilience of cyber-physical networks to unexpected failures is a critical need widely recognized across domains. For instance, power grids, telecommunication networks, transportation infrastructures and water treatment systems have all…
The dynamics of cascading failures in spatial interdependent networks significantly depend on the interaction range of dependency couplings between layers. In particular, for increasing range of dependency couplings, different types of…
Banking system crises are complex events that in a short span of time can inflict extensive damage to banks themselves and to the external economy. The crisis literature has so far identified a number of distinct effects or channels that…
Chaos is widely understood as being a consequence of sensitive dependence upon initial conditions. This is the result of an instability in phase space, which separates trajectories exponentially. Here, we demonstrate that this criterion…
As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and…
Achieving safety in autonomous multi-agent systems, particularly in time-critical tasks like rendezvous, is a critical challenge. In this paper, we propose a distributionally robust risk framework for analyzing cascading failures in…
We propose a dynamical model for cascading failures in single-commodity network flows. In the proposed model, the network state consists of flows and activation status of the links. Network dynamics is determined by a, possibly…
This paper is based on the initial ideas of a PhD proposal which will investigate SCADA failures in physical infrastructure systems. The results will be used to develop a new notation to help risk assessment using dependable computing…
We study cascading failures in smart grids, where an attacker selectively compromises the nodes with probabilities proportional to their degrees, betweenness, or clustering coefficient. This implies that nodes with high degrees,…
One of the serious threats related to climate change is an increase in the number and severity of extreme weather events. A prominent example are hurricanes, which result from rising coastal temperatures. Such extreme weather events can…
In this paper, a new reliability model has been developed for a single system degrading stochastically which experiences soft and hard failure. Soft failure occurs when the physical deterioration level of the system is greater than a…
The control and risk assessment in complex information systems require to take into account extremes arising from nodes with large node degrees. Various sampling techniques like a Page Rank random walk, a Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain…
Modern production systems are increasingly defined by dense networks of multi-tier sourcing dependencies, where localized upstream disruptions can cascade into system-wide collapses. While supply chain resilience has garnered significant…
We propose a generalized extreme shock model with a possibly increasing failure threshold. While standard models assume that the crucial threshold for the system may only decrease over time, because of weakening shocks and obsolescence, we…
We investigate the abrupt breakdown behavior of coupled distribution grids under load growth. This scenario mimics the ever-increasing customer demand and the foreseen introduction of energy hubs interconnecting the different energy…