Related papers: How big is too big? Critical Shocks for Systemic F…
We investigate exceedances of the process over a sufficiently high threshold. The exceedances determine the risk of hazardous events like climate catastrophes, huge insurance claims, the loss and delay in telecommunication networks. Due to…
Many real-world multilayer systems such as critical infrastructure are interdependent and embedded in space with links of a characteristic length. They are also vulnerable to localized attacks or failures, such as terrorist attacks or…
For large-scale power networks, the failure of particular transmission lines can offload power to other lines and cause self-protection trips to activate, instigating a cascade of line failures. In extreme cases, this can bring down the…
We study contagion and systemic risk in sparse financial networks with balance-sheet interactions on a directed random graph. Each institution has homogeneous liabilities and equity, and exposures along outgoing edges are split equally…
We propose a generic system model for a special category of interdependent networks, demand-supply networks, in which the demand and the supply nodes are associated with heterogeneous loads and resources, respectively. Our model sheds a…
Our society nowadays is governed by complex networks, examples being the power grids, telecommunication networks, biological networks, and social networks. It has become of paramount importance to understand and characterize the dynamic…
The combination of the compactness of networks, featuring small diameters, and their complex architectures results in a variety of critical effects dramatically different from those in cooperative systems on lattices. In the last few years,…
In today's global economy, supply chain (SC) entities have become increasingly interconnected with demand and supply relationships due to the need for strategic outsourcing. Such interdependence among firms not only increases efficiency but…
We propose a model which explains how power-law crossover behaviour can arise in a system which is capable of experiencing cascading failure. In our model the susceptibility of the system to cascades is described by a single number, the…
A system is considered, which is subject to external and possibly fatal shocks, with dependence between the fatality of a shock and the system age. Apart from these shocks, the system suffers from competing soft and sudden failures, where…
An algorithm for efficiently calculating the expected size of single-seed cascade dynamics on networks is proposed and tested. The expected size is a time-dependent quantity and so enables the identification of nodes who are the most…
The dynamics of a nonequilibrium system can become complex because the system has many components (e.g., a human brain), because the system is strongly driven from equilibrium (e.g., large Reynolds-number flows), or because the system…
We consider in this paper the potential for ex ante prediction of the cascade size in a model of binary choice with externalities (Schelling 1973, Watts 2002). Agents are connected on a network and can be in one of two states of the world,…
A probabilistic framework is introduced that represents stylized banking networks and aims to predict the size of contagion events. In contrast to previous work on random financial networks, which assumes independent connections between…
Online social networks have increasing influence on our society, they may play decisive roles in politics and can be crucial for the fate of companies. Such services compete with each other and some may even break down rapidly. Using social…
The fragility of financial systems was starkly demonstrated in early 2023 through a cascade of major bank failures in the United States, including the second, third, and fourth largest collapses in the US history. The highly interdependent…
We study, both analytically and numerically, the cascade of failures in two coupled network systems A and B, where multiple support-dependent relations are randomly built between nodes of networks A and B. In our model we assume that each…
An avalanche or cascade occurs when one event causes one or more subsequent events, which in turn may cause further events in a chain reaction. Avalanching dynamics are studied in many disciplines, with a recent focus on average avalanche…
We study the cascading failures in a system composed of two interdependent square lattice networks A and B placed on the same Cartesian plane, where each node in network A depends on a node in network B randomly chosen within a certain…
With the sharp increase of power demand, large-scale blackouts in power grids occur frequently around the world. Cascading failures are the main causes of network outages. Therefore, revealing the complicated cascade mechanism in grids is…