Hitting times of threshold exceedances and their distributions
Abstract
We investigate exceedances of the process over a sufficiently high threshold. The exceedances determine the risk of hazardous events like climate catastrophes, huge insurance claims, the loss and delay in telecommunication networks. Due to dependence such exceedances tend to occur in clusters. Cluster structure of social networks is caused by dependence (social relationships and interests) between nodes and possibly heavy-tailed distributions of the node degrees. A minimal time to reach a large node determines the first hitting time. We derive asymptotically equivalent distribution and a limit expectation of the first hitting time to exceed the threshold as sample size tends to infinity. The results can be extended to the second and, generally, to th () hitting times.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1501.01561,
title = {Hitting times of threshold exceedances and their distributions},
author = {Natalia Markovich},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1501.01561},
year = {2015}
}
Comments
6 pages, International Conference on Risk Analysis ICRA 6 / RISK 2015 Barcelona, May 26 - 29, 2015