Related papers: Markov Chain Monte Carlo confidence intervals

We show that the class of $L^2$ functions for which ergodic averages of a reversible Markov chain have finite asymptotic variance is determined by the class of $L^2$ functions for which ergodic averages of its associated jump chain have…

In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…

There has been substantial interest in developing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms based on piecewise-deterministic Markov processes. However existing algorithms can only be used if the target distribution of interest is differentiable…

This paper addresses a key limitation in existing counterfactual inference methods for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Current approaches assume a specific causal model to make counterfactuals identifiable. However, there are usually many…

Sampling from lattice Gaussian distribution has emerged as an important problem in coding, decoding and cryptography. In this paper, the classic Gibbs algorithm from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is demonstrated to be…

Generating random variates from high-dimensional distributions is often done approximately using Markov chain Monte Carlo. In certain cases, perfect simulation algorithms exist that allow one to draw exactly from the stationary…

MCMC methods (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) are a class of methods used to perform simulations per a probability distribution $P$. These methods are often used when we have difficulties to directly sample per a given probability distribution…

Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling…

We observe n possibly dependent random variables, the distribution of which is presumed to be stationary even though this might not be true, and we aim at estimating the stationary distribution. We establish a non-asymptotic deviation bound…

Let {X_n,n\geq0} be a Markov chain on a general state space X with transition probability P and stationary probability \pi. Suppose an additive component S_n takes values in the real line R and is adjoined to the chain such that…

A stable-like Markov chain is a time-homogeneous Markov chain on the real line with the transition kernel $p(x,dy)=f_x(y-x)dy$, where the density functions $f_x(y)$, for large $|y|$, have a power-law decay with exponent $\alpha(x)+1$, where…

This paper is a survey of various proofs of the so called {\em fundamental theorem of Markov chains}: every ergodic Markov chain has a unique positive stationary distribution and the chain attains this distribution in the limit independent…

For a discrete time Markov chain and in line with Strotz' consistent planning we develop a framework for problems of optimal stopping that are time-inconsistent due to the consideration of a non-linear function of an expected reward. We…

We consider evaluation of proper posterior distributions obtained from improper prior distributions. Our context is estimating a bounded function $\phi$ of a parameter when the loss is quadratic. If the posterior mean of $\phi$ is…

We analyse the structure of imprecise Markov chains and study their convergence by means of accessibility relations. We first identify the sets of states, so-called minimal permanent classes, that are the minimal sets capable of containing…

We justify and discuss expressions for joint lower and upper expectations in imprecise probability trees, in terms of the sub- and supermartingales that can be associated with such trees. These imprecise probability trees can be seen as…

We extend in two directions our previous results about the sampling and the empirical measures of immortal branching Markov processes. Direct applications to molecular biology are rigorous estimates of the mutation rates of polymerase chain…

In this paper, we study the asymptotic variance of sample path averages for inhomogeneous Markov chains that evolve alternatingly according to two different $\pi$-reversible Markov transition kernels $P$ and $Q$. More specifically, our main…

We consider a Markov chain on $\mathbb{R}^d$ with invariant measure $\mu$. We are interested in the rate of convergence of the empirical measures towards the invariant measure with respect to various dual distances, including in particular…

Let $\pi$ denote the intractable posterior density that results when the likelihood from a multivariate linear regression model with errors from a scale mixture of normals is combined with the standard non-informative prior. There is a…