Related papers: Extreme value statistics for dynamical systems wit…
This paper presents a systematic numerical study of the effects of noise on the invariant probability densities of dynamical systems with varying degrees of hyperbolicity. It is found that the rate of convergence of invariant densities in…
Intermittent large amplitude events are seen in the temporal evolution of a state variable of many dynamical systems. Such intermittent large events suddenly start appearing in dynamical systems at a critical value of a system parameter and…
Max-stable processes are widely used to model spatial extremes. These processes exhibit asymptotic dependence meaning that the large values of the process can occur simultaneously over space. Recently, inverted max-stable processes have…
The effect of small-amplitude noise on excitable systems with large time-scale separation is analyzed. It is found that small random perturbations of the fast excitatory variable result in the onset of a quasi-deterministic limit cycle…
Advanced science and technology provide a wealth of big data from different sources for extreme value analysis. Classical extreme value theory was extended to obtain an accelerated max-stable distribution family for modelling competing…
We start by reviewing recent probabilistic results on ergodic sums in a large class of (non-uniformly) hyperbolic dynamical systems. Namely, we describe the central limit theorem, the almost-sure convergence to the gaussian and other stable…
We study the dynamics of fronts when both inertial effects and external fluctuations are taken into account. Stochastic fluctuations are introduced as multiplicative noise arising from a control parameter of the system. Contrary to the…
In many real-world dynamical systems, obtaining precise models of system uncertainty remains a challenge. It may be difficult to estimate noise distributions or robustness bounds, especially when the distributions/robustness bounds vary…
In this paper, we present a test for the maximal rank of the volatility process in continuous diffusion models observed with noise. Such models are typically applied in mathematical finance, where latent price processes are corrupted by…
We prove limit theorems of an entirely new type for certain long memory regularly varying stationary infinitely divisible random processes. These theorems involve multiple phase transitions governed by how long the memory is. Apart from one…
Extreme events can come either from point processes, when the size or energy of the events is above a certain threshold, or from time series, when the intensity of a signal surpasses a threshold value. We are particularly concerned by the…
In this paper, we consider discrete-time non-linear stochastic dynamical systems with additive process noise in which both the initial state and noise distributions are uncertain. Our goal is to quantify how the uncertainty in these…
This paper is devoted to the prediction problem in extreme value theory. Our main result is an explicit expression of the regular conditional distribution of a max-stable (or max-infinitely divisible) process $\{\eta(t)\}_{t\in T}$ given…
The principal aim of the present work is to explore limit theorems for small random perturbations of dynamical systems with periodic impulse effects, in the limit of vanishing noise intensity. We start with a system whose time evolution is…
Consider a dynamical system given by a planar differential equation, which exhibits an unstable periodic orbit surrounding a stable periodic orbit. It is known that under random perturbations, the distribution of locations where the…
Fluctuations of global additive quantities, like total energy or magnetization for instance, can in principle be described by statistics of sums of (possibly correlated) random variables. Yet, it turns out that extreme values (the largest…
We study small random perturbations by additive white-noise of a spatial discretization of a reaction-diffusion equation with a stable equilibrium and solutions that blow up in finite time. We prove that the perturbed system blows up with…
Additive noise is known to produce counter-intuitive behaviors in nonlinear dynamical systems. Previously, it was shown that systems with a deterministic limit cycle can display bistable switching between metastable states in the presence…
By means of a novel variational approach we study ergodic properties of a model of a multi lane traffic flow, considered as a (deterministic) wandering of interacting particles on an infinite lattice. For a class of initial configurations…
In the context of stability of the extremes of a random variable X with respect to a positive integer valued random variable N we discuss the cases (i) X is exponential (ii) non-geometric laws for N (iii) identifying N for the stability of…