Related papers: Modeling and Forecasting Persistent Financial Dura…
This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…
This paper studies the joint role of long-memory dynamics,rough-volatility behavior, and persistence-based forecasting features in equity volatility modeling. We combine semiparametric long-memory estimation, rough-volatility diagnostics,…
Building upon factor decomposition to overcome the curse of dimensionality inherent in multivariate volatility processes, we develop a factor model-based multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) framework. We propose a two-stage estimation…
This work proposes a compositional data-driven technique for the construction of finite Markov decision processes (MDPs) for large-scale stochastic networks with unknown mathematical models. Our proposed framework leverages dissipativity…
We suggest the Doubly Multiplicative Error class of models (DMEM) for modeling and forecasting realized volatility, which combines two components accommodating low-, respectively, high-frequency features in the data. We derive the…
We consider Stochastic Volatility processes with heavy tails and possible long memory in volatility. We study the limiting conditional distribution of future events given that some present or past event was extreme (i.e. above a level which…
The slow processes of metastable stochastic dynamical systems are difficult to access by direct numerical simulation due the sampling problem. Here, we suggest an approach for modeling the slow parts of Markov processes by approximating the…
Multivariate time series forecasting is widely used in various fields. Reasonable prediction results can assist people in planning and decision-making, generate benefits and avoid risks. Normally, there are two characteristics of time…
Probabilistic machine learning techniques can learn both complex relations between input features and output quantities of interest as well as take into account stochasticity or uncertainty within a data set. In this initial work, we…
We discuss stochastic modeling of volatility persistence and anti-correlations in electricity spot prices, and for this purpose we present two mean-reverting versions of the multifractal random walk (MRW). In the first model the…
A Bayesian procedure is developed for multivariate stochastic volatility, using state space models. An autoregressive model for the log-returns is employed. We generalize the inverted Wishart distribution to allow for different correlation…
This work addresses the general problem of control synthesis for continuous-space, discrete-time stochastic systems with probabilistic guarantees via finite abstractions. While established methods exist, they often trade off accuracy for…
Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are an effective way to formally describe many Machine Learning problems. In fact, recently MDPs have also emerged as a powerful framework to model financial trading tasks. For example, financial MDPs can…
Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) have been used to formulate many decision-making problems in science and engineering. The objective is to synthesize the best decision (action selection) policies to maximize expected rewards (or minimize…
Identifying important features linked to a response variable is a fundamental task in various scientific domains. This article explores statistical inference for simulated Markov random fields in high-dimensional settings. We introduce a…
Interval Markov decision processes (IMDPs) generalise classical MDPs by having interval-valued transition probabilities. They provide a powerful modelling tool for probabilistic systems with an additional variation or uncertainty that…
We establish sufficient conditions on durations that are stationary with finite variance and memory parameter $d \in [0,1/2)$ to ensure that the corresponding counting process $N(t)$ satisfies $\textmd{Var} N(t) \sim C t^{2d+1}$ ($C>0$) as…
The Mixture Transition Distribution (MTD) model was introduced by Raftery to face the need for parsimony in the modeling of high-order Markov chains in discrete time. The particularity of this model comes from the fact that the effect of…
We address the problem of parameter estimation for diffusion driven stochastic volatility models through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). To avoid degeneracy issues we introduce an innovative reparametrisation defined through…
This paper addresses the difficulty of characterizing the time-varying nature of fading channels. The current time-invariant models often fall short of capturing and tracking these dynamic characteristics. To overcome this limitation, we…