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Sequential decisions in volatile, high-stakes settings require more than maximizing expected return; they require principled uncertainty management. This paper presents the Uncertainty-Aware Markov Decision Process (UAMDP), a unified…

Reinforcement learning in non-stationary environments is challenging due to abrupt and unpredictable changes in dynamics, often causing traditional algorithms to fail to converge. However, in many real-world cases, non-stationarity has some…

Accurate prediction of nonstationary multivariate time series remains a critical challenge in complex industrial systems such as iron ore sintering. In practice, pronounced concept drift compounded by significant label verification latency…

In this paper we apply Markovian approximation of the fractional Brownian motion (BM), known as the Dobric-Ojeda (DO) process, to the fractional stochastic volatility model where the instantaneous variance is modelled by a lognormal process…

We present a HJM approach to the projection of multiple yield curves developed to capture the volatility content of historical term structures for risk management purposes. Since we observe the empirical data at daily frequency and only for…

Markov decision processes (MDP) are useful to model concurrent process optimisation problems, but verifying them with numerical methods is often intractable. Existing approximative approaches do not scale well and are limited to memoryless…

The supervised machine learning (ML) approach is applied to realize the trajectory-based nonadiabatic dynamics within the framework of the symmetrical quasi-classical dynamics method based on the Meyer-Miller mapping Hamiltonian (MM-SQC).…

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) have recently emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models over discrete domains. MDMs generate sequences in an any-order, parallel fashion, enabling fast inference and strong performance on…

A Markov-switching observation-driven model is a stochastic process $((S_t,Y_t))_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ where $(S_t)_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ is an unobserved Markov chain on a finite set and $(Y_t)_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ is an observed stochastic…

This paper presents static and dynamic versions of univariate, multivariate, and multilevel functional time-series methods to forecast implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets. We find that dynamic functional principal…

Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…

We propose the Markov Switching Dynamic Shrinkage process (MSDSP), nesting the Dynamic Shrinkage Process (DSP) of Kowal et al. (2019). We revisit the Meese-Rogoff puzzle (Meese and Rogoff, 1983a,b, 1988) by applying the MSDSP to the…

Motivated by a real failure dataset in a two-dimensional context, this paper presents an extension of the Markov modulated Poisson process (MMPP) to two dimensions. The one-dimensional MMPP has been proposed for the modeling of dependent…

We study the online estimation of the optimal policy of a Markov decision process (MDP). We propose a class of Stochastic Primal-Dual (SPD) methods which exploit the inherent minimax duality of Bellman equations. The SPD methods update a…

We present a large scale benchmark of modern deep learning architectures for a financial time series prediction and position sizing task, with a primary focus on Sharpe ratio optimization. Evaluating linear models, recurrent networks,…

Contextual Markov decision processes (CMDPs) describe a class of reinforcement learning problems in which the transition kernels and reward functions can change over time with different MDPs indexed by a context variable. While CMDPs serve…

A linear mixed-effects (LME) model is proposed for modelling and forecasting single and multi-population age-specific death rates (ASDRs). The innovative approach that we take in this study treats age, the interaction between gender and…

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) is the prediction of key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation on the 2-week to 2-month time horizon. Skillful SSF would have substantial societal value in areas such as agricultural…

A diversified risk-adjusted time-series momentum (TSMOM) portfolio can deliver substantial abnormal returns and offer some degree of tail risk protection during extreme market events. The performance of existing TSMOM strategies, however,…

This work develops non-asymptotic theory for estimation of the long-run variance matrix and its inverse, the so-called precision matrix, for high-dimensional time series under general assumptions on the dependence structure including…