Related papers: A Bayesian Analysis of the Correlations Among Suns…
The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the…
Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in…
Solar cycles are studied with the Version 2 monthly smoothed international sunspot number, the variations of which are found to be well represented by the modified logistic differential equation with four parameters: maximum cumulative…
The use of the spotless days to predict the future solar activity is here revised based on the new version of the sunspot number index with a 24-month filter. Data from Solar Cycle (SC) 10 are considered because from this solar cycle the…
Detailed models of the solar cycle require information about the starting time and rise time as well as the shape and amplitude of the cycle. However, none of these models includes a discussion of the variations in the length of the cycle,…
Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum can have important…
The Sun exhibits a well-observed modulation in the number of spots on its disk over a period of about 11 years. From the dawn of modern observational astronomy sunspots have presented a challenge to understanding -- their quasi-periodic…
The present paper reviews results derived from statistical studies on solar activity indices. The prolonged minimum phase of cycle 23 raised the question of peculiarities inherent in cycle 23. The most important solar activity index is the…
The use of different solar activity indices like sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, flare index, magnetic fields, etc., allows us to investigate the time evolution of some specific features of the solar activity and the underlying dynamo…
The rise and fall in the number of sunspots have served as a lynchpin in many investigations on solar dynamics. Arising from magnetic disturbances in the sun, variations in sunspot numbers have helped define a solar cycle of around eleven…
The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to…
The Solar Cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots…
The linear relationship between the maximum amplitudes (R$_{max}$) of sunspot cycles and preceding minima (R$_{min}$) is one of the precursor methods used to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle. In the recent past this method…
The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows…
A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with…
Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and…
Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well…
The Schwabe (~11 yr) value for the annual sunspot number is sometimes uncritically applied to other measures of solar activity, direct and indirect, including the 10.7 cm radio flux, the inflow of galactic cosmic rays, solar flare…
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…
Forecasting the strength of the sunspot cycle is highly important for many space weather applications. Our previous studies have shown the importance of sunspot number variability in the declining phase of the current 11-year sunspot cycle…