Related papers: Stochastic dynamics of dengue epidemics

Epidemiological models may give some basic guidelines for public health practitioners, allowing to analyze issues that can influence the strategies to prevent and fight a disease. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model…

We consider a continuous-time Markov chain model of SIR disease dynamics with two levels of mixing. For this so-called stochastic households model, we provide two methods for inferring the model parameters---governing within-household…

Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…

We introduce an interacting particle system that models the spread of an epidemic in terms of heterogeneous diffusive dynamics, rather than exogenous contact and transmission rates at the population level as in classical compartmental…

Different extensions of the classical single-strain SIR model for the host population, motivated by modeling dengue fever epidemiology, have reported a rich dynamic structure including deterministic chaos which was able to explain the large…

Despite the enormous relevance of zoonotic infections to world- wide public health, and despite much effort in modeling individual zoonoses, a fundamental understanding of the disease dynamics and the nature of outbreaks arising in such…

We define and study an open stochastic SIR (Susceptible -- Infected -- Removed) model on a graph in order to describe the spread of an epidemic on a cattle trade network with epidemiological and demographic dynamics occurring over the same…

Vector-borne diseases arise from the coupled dynamics of human mobility and mosquito ecology, producing outbreaks shaped by both spatial distributions and temporal patterns of movement. Here we develop a coarse-grained hub--leaf reduction…

Human diseases spread over networks of contacts between individuals and a substantial body of recent research has focused on the dynamics of the spreading process. Here we examine a model of two competing diseases spreading over the same…

The worldwide spread of COVID-19 has called for fast advancement of new modelling strategies to estimate its unprecedented spread. Here, we introduce a model based on the fundamental SIR equations with a stochastic disorder by a random…

In this paper we develop an SIR model for coinfection. We discuss how the underlying dynamics depends on the carrying capacity $K$: from a simple dynamics to a more complicated. This can help in understanding of appearance of more…

To forecast the time dynamics of an epidemic, we propose a discrete stochastic model that unifies and generalizes previous approaches to the subject. Viewing a given population of individuals or groups of individuals with given health state…

With the prevalence of COVID-19, the modeling of epidemic propagation and its analyses have played a significant role in controlling epidemics. However, individual behaviors, in particular the self-protection and migration, which have a…

We propose a Markovian stochastic approach to model the spread of a SARS-CoV-2-like infection within a closed group of humans. The model takes the form of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), whose states are given by the…

We study epidemic spreading in complex networks by a multiple random walker approach. Each walker performs an independent simple Markovian random walk on a complex undirected (ergodic) random graph where we focus on Barab\'asi-Albert (BA),…

We explore a rigorous formulation of agent-based SIR epidemic dynamics as a discrete-state Markov process, capturing the stochastic propagation of infection or an invading agent on networks. Using indicator functions and corresponding…

We introduce a stochastic SIR-type partial differential equation model incorporating random diffusion, reinfection, vital dynamics, and a randomly varying transmission rate. For the associated random dynamical system, we prove the existence…

This paper deals with the long-term behaviour and incidence of a vaccine-preventable contact disease, under the assumption that both vaccine protection and immunity after recovery are not lifelong. The mathematical model is developed in a…

Models of disease spreading are critical for predicting infection growth in a population and evaluating public health policies. However, standard models typically represent the dynamics of disease transmission between individuals using…

Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted to humans by vectors of genus Aedes and is a global threat with health, social, and economic impact in many of the tropical countries including Sri Lanka. The virus transmission is significantly…