Related papers: Stochastic dynamics of dengue epidemics
Mathematical models are formal and simplified representations of the knowledge related to a phenomenon. In classical epidemic models, a neglected aspect is the heterogeneity of disease transmission and progression linked to the viral load…
Consider a large uniformly mixing dynamic population, which has constant birth rate and exponentially distributed lifetimes, with mean population size $n$. A Markovian SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) infectious disease,…
We develop a stochastic two-patch epidemic model with nonlinear recidivism to investigate infectious disease dynamics in heterogeneous populations. Extending a deterministic framework, we introduce stochasticity to account for random…
Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted from an infected human to an Aedes mosquito, during a blood-meal. Dengue is still a major public health problem. A model for the disease transmission is presented, composed by human and…
Dengue virus transmission models commonly assume an exponential distribution for the mosquito extrinsic incubation period (EIP), potentially oversimplifying biological variability. We developed a stochastic mechanistic dengue transmission…
We study a stochastic spatial epidemic model where the $N$ individuals carry two features: a position and an infection state, interact and move in $\R^d$. In this Markovian model, the evolution of the infection states are described with the…
A class of stochastic vector-borne infectious disease models is derived and studied. The class type is determined by a general nonlinear incidence rate of the disease. The disease spreads in a highly random environment with variability from…
We study the threshold dynamics of a stochastic SAIRS-type model with vaccination, where the role of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals is explicitly considered in the epidemic dynamics. In the model, the values of the…
Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…
We investigate the spatial dynamics of two disease epidemics reaching a three-species cyclic model. Regardless of their species, all individuals are susceptible to being infected with two different pathogens, which spread through…
We introduce a stochastic household model for vector-borne diseases, in particular as relevant to prominent vectors belonging to the Aedes genus and hence the Zika, chikungunya, and dengue viruses. In this model, vectors remain local to…
We study an individual-based stochastic spatial epidemic model where the number of locations and the number of individuals at each location both grow to infinity. Each individual is associated with a random infection-age dependent…
We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by…
It is preliminarily known that Aedes mosquitoes are very close to humans and their dwellings, also give rises to a broad spectrum of diseases: dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya. In this paper, we explore a multi-age-class model for mosquito…
A two-patch mathematical model of Dengue virus type 2 (DENV-2) that accounts for vectors' vertical transmission and between patches human dispersal is introduced. Dispersal is modeled via a Lagrangian approach. A host-patch residence-times…
Vector-borne epidemics are the result of the combination of different factors such as the crossed contagions between humans and vectors, their demographic distribution and human mobility among others. The current availability of information…
The stacked contact process is a stochastic model for the spread of an infection within a population of hosts located on the $d$-dimensional integer lattice. Regardless of whether they are healthy or infected, hosts give birth and die at…
Dengue, a mosquito-borne disease, continues to pose a persistent public health challenge in urban areas, particularly in tropical regions such as Singapore. Effective and affordable control requires anticipating where transmission risks are…
Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of complex and realistic scenarios that go from the population to the individual level of description. However, most epidemic models assume that the spreading process takes place…
Self-adaptive dynamics occurs in many physical systems such as socio-economics, neuroscience, or biophysics. We formalize a self-adaptive modeling approach, where adaptation takes place within a set of strategies based on the history of the…