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We prove precise stability results for overshoots of Markov additive processes (MAPs) with finite modulating space. Our approach is based on the Markovian nature of overshoots of MAPs whose mixing and ergodic properties are investigated in…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Leif Döring , Lukas Trottner

In this short note we provide an elementary proof that a certain type of nonuniform sequential Doeblin minorization condition implies non-uniform sequential "geometric" ergodicity. Using this result several limit theorems for inhomogeneous…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-20 Yeor Hafouta , Brenden Williams

In this paper, we give quantitative bounds on the $f$-total variation distance from convergence of an Harris recurrent Markov chain on an arbitrary under drift and minorisation conditions implying ergodicity at a sub-geometric rate. These…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Randal Douc , Eric Moulines , Philippe Soulier

We develop a general variational inference method that preserves dependency among the latent variables. Our method uses copulas to augment the families of distributions used in mean-field and structured approximations. Copulas model the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-03 Dustin Tran , David M. Blei , Edoardo M. Airoldi

We are interested in studying the sensitivity of diffusion processes or their approximations by Markov Chains with respect to a perturbation of the coefficients.

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-28 V. Konakov , A. Kozhina , S. Menozzi

We introduce a family of copulas which are locally piecewise uniform in the interior of the unit cube of any given dimension. Within that family, the simultaneous control of tail dependencies of all projections to faces of the cube is…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-08-11 Christoph Hummel

We analyze quasi-stationary distributions $\{\mu^{\varepsilon}\}_{\varepsilon>0}$ of a family of Markov chains $\{X^{\varepsilon}\}_{\varepsilon>0}$ that are random perturbations of a bounded, continuous map $F:M\to M$, where $M$ is a…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-16 Mathieu Faure , Sebastian J. Schreiber

We address the problem of estimating the mixing time of a Markov chain from a single trajectory of observations. Unlike most previous works which employed Hilbert space methods to estimate spectral gaps, we opt for an approach based on…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-13 Geoffrey Wolfer

Weak convergence of the empirical copula process is shown to hold under the assumption that the first-order partial derivatives of the copula exist and are continuous on certain subsets of the unit hypercube. The assumption is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-06 Johan Segers

From the perspective of probability, the stability of growing network is studied in the present paper. Using the DMS model as an example, we establish a relation between the growing network and Markov process. Based on the concept and…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2008-06-02 Zhenting Hou , Jinying Tong , Dinghua Shi

We study the convergence rate to stationarity for a class of exchangeable partition-valued Markov chains called cut-and-paste chains. The law governing the transitions of a cut-and-paste chain are determined by products of i.i.d. stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-09-25 Harry Crane , Steven P. Lalley

We study irreducible time-homogenous Markov chains with finite state space in discrete time. We obtain results on the sensitivity of the stationary distribution and other statistical quantities with respect to perturbations of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Eilon Solan , Nicolas Vieille

We address the problem of estimating the mixing time $t_{\mathsf{mix}}$ of an arbitrary ergodic finite-state Markov chain from a single trajectory of length $m$. The reversible case was addressed by Hsu et al. [2019], who left the general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-17 Geoffrey Wolfer , Aryeh Kontorovich

Predictive constructions are a powerful way of characterizing the probability law of stochastic processes with certain forms of invariance, such as exchangeability or Markov exchangeability. When de Finetti-like representation theorems are…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-16 Sandra Fortini , Sonia Petrone

Kemeny's constant measures the efficiency of a Markov chain in traversing its states. We investigate whether structure-preserving perturbations to the transition probabilities of a reversible Markov chain can improve its connectivity while…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-12-17 Fabio Durastante , Miryam Gnazzo , Beatrice Meini

Consider time-homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains $X$, $Y$, and $Z$ on countable state spaces, considered as stochastic processes with specified initial distributions. Suppose for maps $f$ and $g$ that $(f(X_t))_{t \ge 0}$ and…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Edward Crane , Alexander E. Holroyd , Erin Russell

We consider Markov processes, which describe e.g. queueing network processes, in a random environment which influences the network by determining random breakdown of nodes, and the necessity of repair thereafter. Starting from an explicit…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-03 H. Daduna , R. Szekli

We study an irreducible Markov chain on the category of finite abelian $p$-groups, whose stationary measure is the Cohen-Lenstra distribution. This Markov chain arises when one studies the cokernel of a random matrix $M$, after conditioning…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-14 Nikita Lvov

Consider a Markov chain $(X_i)_{i\ge0}$ with invariant measure $\mu$ that admits the representation $X_{i+1}=\Phi(X_i,U_i)$, where $(U_i)_{i\ge0}$ are i.i.d. random variables and $\Phi$ is a measurable map. We introduce a tangent-decoupled…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Nawaf Bou-Rabee , Victor H. de la Peña

We present a new family of models that is based on graphs that may have undirected, directed and bidirected edges. We name these new models marginal AMP (MAMP) chain graphs because each of them is Markov equivalent to some AMP chain graph…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-10 Jose M. Peña
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