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This paper proposes normative criteria for voting rules under uncertainty about individual preferences. The criteria emphasize the importance of responsiveness, i.e., the probability that the social outcome coincides with the realized…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-07-31 Satoshi Nakada , Shmuel Nitzan , Takashi Ui

We present a new angle on the expressive power of graph neural networks (GNNs) by studying how the predictions of real-valued GNN classifiers, such as those classifying graphs probabilistically, evolve as we apply them on larger graphs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-11 Sam Adam-Day , Michael Benedikt , İsmail İlkan Ceylan , Ben Finkelshtein

In this paper, we investigate a general nonlinear model of opinion dynamics in which both state-dependent susceptibility to persuasion and antagonistic interactions are considered. According to the existing literature and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-01-29 Shidong Zhai , Wei Xing Zheng

In modern democracies, the outcome of elections and referendums is often remarkably tight. The repetition of these divisive events are the hallmark of a split society; to the physicist, however, it is an astonishing feat for such large…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-02-20 Olivier Devauchelle , Piotr Szymczak , Piotr Nowakowski

In this work we consider the \emph{infinite color urn model} associated with a bounded increment random walk on $\Zbold^d$. This model was first introduced by Bandyopadhyay and Thacker (2013). We prove that the rate of convergence of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-23 Antar Bandyopadhyay , Debleena Thacker

In [arXiv:1906.10951 (forthcoming on Advances in Applied Probability),arXiv:2011.05933 (published on PLOS ONE)] the authors introduce, study and apply a new variant of the Eggenberger-Polya urn, called the "Rescaled" Polya urn, which, for a…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-30 Giacomo Aletti , Irene Crimaldi

In this paper, we start reviewing the main features of the one-dimensional Ising model with long-range interactions, where the spin-spin coupling decays as a power law, $J(r) \propto r^{-\alpha}$. We then discuss the key properties of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-02-10 Federico Corberi , Eugenio Lippiello , Paolo Politi , Luca Smaldone

This work is devoted to P\'olya-Young urns, a class of periodic P\'olya urns of importance in the analysis of Young tableaux. We provide several extension of the previous results of Banderier, Marchal and Wallner [Ann. Prob. (2020)] on…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-28 Markus Kuba

In this paper we extend some recent results on an operatorial approach to the description of alliances between political parties interacting among themselves and with a basin of electors. In particular, we propose and compare three…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-05-24 F. Bagarello , F. Gargano

We analyse a preferential urn model with randomness using the replica method. The preferential urn model is a stochastic model based on the concept "the rich get richer." The replica analysis clarifies that the preferential urn model with…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-11 Jun Ohkubo , Muneki Yasuda , Kazuyuki Tanaka

A generalization of Gy's theory for the variance of the fundamental sampling error is reviewed. Practical situations where the generalized model potentially leads to more accurate variance estimates are identified as: clustering of…

Applications · Statistics 2009-11-10 Bastiaan Geelhoed

We consider a two-color P\'{o}lya urn in the case when a fixed number $S$ of balls is added at each step. Assume it is a large urn that is, the second eigenvalue $m$ of the replacement matrix satisfies $1/2<m/S\leq1$. After $n$ drawings,…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-12-30 Brigitte Chauvin , Nicolas Pouyanne , Reda Sahnoun

We propose a model of network formation based on reinforcement learning, which can be seen as a generalization as the one proposed by Skyrms for signaling games. On a discrete graph, whose vertices represent individuals, at any time step…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-08 Daniel Kious , Pierre Tarrès

Normalizing flows provide a general mechanism for defining expressive probability distributions, only requiring the specification of a (usually simple) base distribution and a series of bijective transformations. There has been much recent…

Recently several authors have proposed stochastic evolutionary models for the growth of complex networks that give rise to power-law distributions. These models are based on the notion of preferential attachment leading to the ``rich get…

Physics and Society · Physics 2007-05-23 Trevor Fenner , Mark Levene , George Loizou

We define the notions of disjoint unions and products for generalised P\'olya urns, proving that this turns the set of isomorphism classes of urns into a commutative semiring. The set of square matrices up to similarity by a permutation…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-16 Fabian Burghart

This paper introduces and analyzes a particular class of Polya urns: balls are of two colors, can only be added (the urns are said to be additive) and at every step the same constant number of balls is added, thus only the color…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2012-03-26 Basile Morcrette

Interest is growing in social learning models where users share opinions and adjust their beliefs in response to others. This paper introduces generalized-bias opinion models, an extension of the DeGroot model, that captures a broader range…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-09-18 Juan Paz , Camilo Rocha , Luis Tobòn , Frank Valencia

Covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) procedures are frequently used in comparative studies to increase the covariate balance across treatment groups. However, because randomization inevitably uses the covariate information when forming…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-08 Wei Ma , Yichen Qin , Yang Li , Feifang Hu

Random graphs offer a useful mathematical representation of a variety of real world complex networks. Exponential random graphs, for example, are particularly suited towards generating random graphs constrained to have specified statistical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-02-09 Alessio Catanzaro , Diego Garlaschelli , Subodh P. Patil