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We analyze a family of methods for statistical causal inference from sample under the so-called Additive Noise Model. While most work on the subject has concentrated on establishing the soundness of the Additive Noise Model, the statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-02-06 Samory Kpotufe , Eleni Sgouritsa , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schölkopf

In this work, we formalize the problem of causal inference over graph-based relational time-series data where each node in the graph has one or more time-series associated to it. We propose causal inference models for this problem that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-27 Ryan Rossi , Somdeb Sarkhel , Nesreen Ahmed

Discovering causal relationships from time series data is significant in fields such as finance, climate science, and neuroscience. However, contemporary techniques rely on the simplifying assumption that data originates from the same…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Sumanth Varambally , Yi-An Ma , Rose Yu

Causal inference from observational data is an ambitious but highly relevant task, with diverse applications ranging from natural to social sciences. Within the scope of nonparametric time series, causal inference defined through…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-22 Shu Li , Jan Ernest , Peter Bühlmann

We propose a definition of causality for time series in terms of the effect of an intervention in one component of a multivariate time series on another component at some later point in time. Conditions for identifiability, comparable to…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-26 Michael Eichler , Vanessa Didelez

We introduce a novel framework to financial time series forecasting that leverages causality-inspired models to balance the trade-off between invariance to distributional changes and minimization of prediction errors. To the best of our…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-20 Daniel Cunha Oliveira , Yutong Lu , Xi Lin , Mihai Cucuringu , Andre Fujita

We describe a new framework for causal inference and its application to return time series. In this system, causal relationships are represented as logical formulas, allowing us to test arbitrarily complex hypotheses in a computationally…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-06-14 Samantha Kleinberg , Petter N. Kolm , Bud Mishra

This paper discusses the fundamental principles of causal inference - the area of statistics that estimates the effect of specific occurrences, treatments, interventions, and exposures on a given outcome from experimental and observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-03 Francesca Dominici , Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Fabrizia Mealli

This paper studies causal discovery in irregularly sampled time series-a key challenge in risk-sensitive domains like finance, healthcare, and climate science, where missing data and inconsistent sampling frequencies distort causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Weihong Li , Baohong Li , Anpeng Wu , Zhihan Li , Ming Ma , Keting Yin , Kun Kuang

This paper proposes a causal inference relation and causal programming as general frameworks for causal inference with structural causal models. A tuple, $\langle M, I, Q, F \rangle$, is an instance of the relation if a formula, $F$,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-08 Joshua Brulé

Causal inference is often portrayed as fundamentally distinct from predictive modeling, with its own terminology, goals, and intellectual challenges. But at its core, causal inference is simply a structured instance of prediction under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Carlos Fernández-Loría

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Ye Wang , Michael Jetsupphasuk

Causal inference from observational data can be viewed as a missing data problem arising from a hypothetical population-scale randomized trial matched to the observational study. This links a target trial protocol with a corresponding…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-27 Andrew Yiu , Edwin Fong , Stephen Walker , Chris Holmes

Granger causality is widely used for causal structure discovery in complex systems from multivariate time series data. Traditional Granger causality tests based on linear models often fail to detect even mild non-linear causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Ziyi Zhang , Shaogang Ren , Xiaoning Qian , Nick Duffield

The potential system is a nonparametric time series model for assessing the causal impact of moving an assignment at time $t$ on an outcome at future time $t+h$, accounting for the presence of features. The potential system provides…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-24 Jacob Carlson , Neil Shephard

Causal discovery from time-series data aims to capture both intra-slice (contemporaneous) and inter-slice (time-lagged) causality between variables within the temporal chain, which is crucial for various scientific disciplines. Compared to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-26 Rujia Shen , Boran Wang , Chao Zhao , Yi Guan , Jingchi Jiang

The study of causality or causal inference - how much a given treatment causally affects a given outcome in a population - goes way beyond correlation or association analysis of variables, and is critical in making sound data driven…

Databases · Computer Science 2017-08-09 Sudeepa Roy , Babak Salimi

Causal inference is the process of using assumptions, study designs, and estimation strategies to draw conclusions about the causal relationships between variables based on data. This allows researchers to better understand the underlying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Ruoxuan Xiong , Fei Wu

Despite the excelling performance of machine learning models, understanding their decisions remains a long-standing goal. Although commonly used attribution methods from explainable AI attempt to address this issue, they typically rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Juan Miguel Lopez Alcaraz , Nils Strodthoff

This paper develops a general causal inference method for treatment effects models with noisily measured confounders. The key feature is that a large set of noisy measurements are linked with the underlying latent confounders through an…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-14 Yingjie Feng