Related papers: Adaptive confidence bands in the nonparametric fix…

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free and model-agnostic uncertainty-quantification method that provides finite-sample prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. In this work, for the first time, we apply conformal-prediction to…

Suppose that one observes pairs $(x_1,Y_1)$, $(x_2,Y_2)$, ..., $(x_n,Y_n)$, where $x_1\le x_2\le ... \le x_n$ are fixed numbers, and $Y_1,Y_2,...,Y_n$ are independent random variables with unknown distributions. The only assumption is that…

We study the problem of nonparametric regression when the regressor is endogenous, which is an important nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) regression in econometrics and a difficult ill-posed inverse problem with unknown operator…

This paper provides a method to construct simultaneous confidence bands for quantile functions and quantile effects in nonlinear network and panel models with unobserved two-way effects, strictly exogenous covariates, and possibly discrete…

We provide adaptive confidence intervals on a parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters when some of the nuisance parameters have known signs. The confidence intervals are adaptive in the sense that they tend to be short…

We constuct a sequential adaptive procedure for estimating the autoregressive function at a given point in nonparametric autoregression models with Gaussian noise. We make use of the sequential kernel estimators. The optimal adaptive…

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…

Additive models are popular in high--dimensional regression problems because of flexibility in model building and optimality in additive function estimation. Moreover, they do not suffer from the so-called {\it curse of dimensionality}…

We extend the method of conformal prediction beyond the case relying on labeled calibration data. Replacing the calibration scores by suitable estimates, we identify conformity sets $C$ for classification and regression models that rely on…

Adaptive experimental design methods are increasingly being used in industry as a tool to boost testing throughput or reduce experimentation cost relative to traditional A/B/N testing methods. This paper shares lessons learned regarding the…

We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

Many standard estimators, when applied to adaptively collected data, fail to be asymptotically normal, thereby complicating the construction of confidence intervals. We address this challenge in a semi-parametric context: estimating the…

Imputing missing potential outcomes using an estimated regression function is a natural idea for estimating causal effects. In the literature, estimators that combine imputation and regression adjustments are believed to be comparable to…

Application of nonparametric and semiparametric regression techniques to high-dimensional time series data has been hampered due to the lack of effective tools to address the ``curse of dimensionality.'' Under rather weak conditions, we…

We study counterfactual regression, which aims to map input features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This is particularly useful for decision-making when adapting to sudden shifts in…

In this work we revisit two classic high-dimensional online learning problems, namely linear regression and contextual bandits, from the perspective of adversarial robustness. Existing works in algorithmic robust statistics make strong…

The increasing popularity of regression discontinuity methods for causal inference in observational studies has led to a proliferation of different estimating strategies, most of which involve first fitting non-parametric regression models…

Some applied researchers hesitate to use nonparametric methods, worrying that they will lose power in small samples or overfit the data when simpler models are sufficient. We argue that at least some of these concerns are unfounded when…

We propose a method to quantify uncertainty around individual survival distribution estimates using right-censored data, compatible with any survival model. Unlike classical confidence intervals, the survival bands produced by this method…

Contextual bandits are a central framework for sequential decision-making, with applications ranging from recommendation systems to clinical trials. While nonparametric methods can flexibly model complex reward structures, they suffer from…