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We propose and analyze reliable and efficient a posteriori error estimators for an optimal control problem that involves a nondifferentiable cost functional, the Poisson problem as state equation and control constraints. To approximate the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-01-14 Alejandro Allendes , Francisco Fuica , Enrique Otárola

The delta method is a popular and elementary tool for deriving limiting distributions of transformed statistics, while applications of asymptotic distributions do not allow one to obtain desirable accuracy of approximation for tail…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-19 Fuqing Gao , Xingqiu Zhao

We analyze the effect of small changes in the underlying probabilistic model on the value of multi-period stochastic optimization problems and optimal stopping problems. We work in finite discrete time and measure these changes with the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-19 Daniel Bartl , Johannes Wiesel

Let $G_{k,n}$ be a group of permutations of $kn$ objects which permutes things independently in disjoint blocks of size $k$ and then permutes the blocks. We investigate the probabilistic and/or enumerative aspects of random elements of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-29 Persi Diaconis , Nathan Tung

We consider Bayesian sample size determination using a criterion that utilizes the first two moments of the expected posterior variance. We study the resulting sample size in dependence on the chosen prior and explore the success rate for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-28 Jörg Martin , Clemens Elster

The Poisson probability distribution is frequently encountered in physical science measurements. In spite of the simplicity and familiarity of this distribution, there is considerable confusion among physicists concerning the description of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2026-04-22 Frank C. Porter

Different change-point type models encountered in statistical inference for stochastic processes give rise to different limiting likelihood ratio processes. In a previous paper of one of the authors it was established that one of these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-06 Serguei Dachian , Ilia Negri

In this article we propose a general framework for normal approximation using Stein's method. We introduce the new concept of Stein couplings and we show that it lies at the heart of popular approaches such as the local approach,…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-10-27 Louis H. Y. Chen , Adrian Röllin

We propose a scalable variational Bayes method for statistical inference for a single or low-dimensional subset of the coordinates of a high-dimensional parameter in sparse linear regression. Our approach relies on assigning a mean-field…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-12 Ismaël Castillo , Alice L'Huillier , Kolyan Ray , Luke Travis

Consider an unlimited homogeneous medium disturbed by points generated via Poisson process. The neighborhood of a point plays an important role in spatial statistics problems. Here, we obtain analytically the distance statistics to $k$th…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-08-11 Cristiano Roberto Fabri Granzotti , Alexandre Souto Martinez

We use Stein's method to bound the Wasserstein distance of order $2$ between a measure $\nu$ and the Gaussian measure using a stochastic process $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$ such that $X_t$ is drawn from $\nu$ for any $t > 0$. If the stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-12 Thomas Bonis

Using Stein's method techniques, we develop a framework which allows one to bound the error terms arising from approximation by the Laplace distribution and apply it to the study of random sums of mean zero random variables. As a corollary,…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-29 John Pike , Haining Ren

We prove a moderate deviation principle for the continuous time interpolation of discrete time recursive stochastic processes. The methods of proof are somewhat different from the corresponding large deviation result, and in particular the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-24 Paul Dupuis , Dane Johnson

We explore negative dependence and stochastic orderings, showing that if an integer-valued random variable $W$ satisfies a certain negative dependence assumption, then $W$ is smaller (in the convex sense) than a Poisson variable of equal…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-22 Fraser Daly

This paper studies theory and inference of an observation-driven model for time series of counts. It is assumed that the observations follow a Poisson distribution conditioned on an accompanying intensity process, which is equipped with a…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-07-18 Chao Wang , Heng Liu , Jian-Feng Yao , Richard A. Davis , Wai Keung Li

Methodologies to test hypotheses about the tail-heaviness of an underlying distribution are introduced based on results of Rojo (1996) using the limiting behavior of the extreme spacings. The tests are consistent and have point-wise robust…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-12-01 J. Rojo , R. C. Ott

Poisson-like behavior for event count data is ubiquitous in nature. At the same time, differencing of such counts arises in the course of data processing in a variety of areas of application. As a result, the Skellam distribution -- defined…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-04-04 H. L. Gan , Eric D. Kolaczyk

The idea behind Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution was used in [J. de la Cal, F. Luquin, J. Approx. Theory, 68(3), 1992, 322-329] and subsequent papers in order to establish the convergence of suitable sequences of positive…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-18 Ana-Maria Acu , Margareta Heilmann , Ioan Rasa , Andra Seserman

In this paper, we aim to give a theoretical approximation for the penalty level of $\ell_{1}$-regularization problems. This can save much time in practice compared with the traditional methods, such as cross-validation. To achieve this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-19 Fang Xie

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-03 Jonathan H. Huggins , Trevor Campbell , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Tamara Broderick
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