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Deep reinforcement learning has demonstrated remarkable achievements across diverse domains such as video games, robotic control, autonomous driving, and drug discovery. Common methodologies in partially-observable domains largely lean on…

This paper deals with the state estimation of non-linear and non-Gaussian systems with an emphasis on the numerical solution to the Bayesian recursive relations. In particular, this paper builds upon the Lagrangian grid-based filter (GbF)…

Modeling and interpreting spike train data is a task of central importance in computational neuroscience, with significant translational implications. Two popular classes of data-driven models for this task are autoregressive Point Process…

We investigate active learning in Gaussian Process state-space models (GPSSM). Our problem is to actively steer the system through latent states by determining its inputs such that the underlying dynamics can be optimally learned by a…

While linear systems are well-understood, no explicit solution for general nonlinear systems exists. A classical approach to make the understanding of linear system available in the nonlinear setting is to represent a nonlinear system by a…

Detection and modeling of change-points in time-series can be considerably challenging. In this paper we approach this problem by incorporating the class of Dynamic Generalized Linear Models (DGLM) into the well know class of Product…

Techniques for plan recognition under uncertainty require a stochastic model of the plan-generation process. We introduce Probabilistic State-Dependent Grammars (PSDGs) to represent an agent's plan-generation process. The PSDG language…

A non-Bayesian, regression-based or generalized least squares (GLS)-based approach is formally proposed to estimate a class of time-varying AR parameter models. This approach has partly been used by Ito et al. (2014, 2016a,b), and is proven…

We provide a comprehensive overview of latent Markov (LM) models for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data. The main assumption behind these models is that the response variables are conditionally independent given a latent process…

The existence of generalized steady states (GSSs) in nonlinear mechanical systems under moderate temporally aperiodic forcing has only been shown recently. Here we derive systematic expansions for such GSSs and construct a numerical…

Identifying dynamical system (DS) is a vital task in science and engineering. Traditional methods require numerous calls to the DS solver, rendering likelihood-based or least-squares inference frameworks impractical. For efficient parameter…

Time series analysis by state-space models is widely used in forecasting and extracting unobservable components like level, slope, and seasonality, along with explanatory variables. However, their reliance on traditional Kalman filtering…

We develop deep Poisson-gamma dynamical systems (DPGDS) to model sequentially observed multivariate count data, improving previously proposed models by not only mining deep hierarchical latent structure from the data, but also capturing…

State space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex time series via a latent stochastic process. Inference for nonlinear, non-Gaussian SSMs is often tackled with particle methods that do not scale well to long time…

Gaussian processes provide a compact representation for modeling and estimating an unknown function, that can be updated as new measurements of the function are obtained. This paper extends this powerful framework to the case where the…

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) provide a rich class of models that can better represent functions with varying regimes or sharp changes, compared to conventional GPs. In this work, we propose a novel inference method for DGPs for computer…

Modern scientific problems are often multi-disciplinary and require integration of computer models from different disciplines, each with distinct functional complexities, programming environments, and computation times. Linked Gaussian…

In this paper, we tackle the problem of transferring policy from multiple partially observable source environments to a partially observable target environment modeled as predictive state representation. This is an entirely new approach…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonplace in spatial statistics. Although many non-stationary models have been developed, there is arguably a lack of flexibility compared to equipping each location with its own parameters. However, the…

Dynamic structural equation models (DSEMs) combine time-series modeling of within-person processes with hierarchical modeling of between-person differences and differences between timepoints, and have become very popular for the analysis of…