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Continuous time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) describe structured stochastic processes with finitely many states that evolve over continuous time. A CTBN is a directed (possibly cyclic) dependency graph over a set of variables, each of which…
Continuous time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) describe structured stochastic processes with finitely many states that evolve over continuous time. A CTBN is a directed (possibly cyclic) dependency graph over a set of variables, each of which…
In this paper we present a language for finite state continuous time Bayesian networks (CTBNs), which describe structured stochastic processes that evolve over continuous time. The state of the system is decomposed into a set of local…
We demonstrate that a number of sociology models for social network dynamics can be viewed as continuous time Bayesian networks (CTBNs). A sampling-based approximate inference method for CTBNs can be used as the basis of an…
Continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) are graphical representations of multi-component continuous-time Markov processes as directed graphs. The edges in the network represent direct influences among components. The joint rate matrix of…
Continuous-time Bayesian Networks (CTBNs) represent a compact yet powerful framework for understanding multivariate time-series data. Given complete data, parameters and structure can be estimated efficiently in closed-form. However, if…
Structured stochastic processes evolving in continuous time present a widely adopted framework to model phenomena occurring in nature and engineering. However, such models are often chosen to satisfy the Markov property to maintain…
The continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) represent a class of stochastic processes, which can be used to model complex phenomena, for instance, they can describe interactions occurring in living processes, in social science models or…
A central task in many applications is reasoning about processes that change in a continuous time. The mathematical framework of Continuous Time Markov Processes provides the basic foundations for modeling such systems. Recently, Nodelman…
We consider the problem of learning structures and parameters of Continuous-time Bayesian Networks (CTBNs) from time-course data under minimal experimental resources. In practice, the cost of generating experimental data poses a bottleneck,…
Continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) constitute a general and powerful framework for modeling continuous-time stochastic processes on networks. This makes them particularly attractive for learning the directed structures among…
Interacting systems of events may exhibit cascading behavior where events tend to be temporally clustered. While the cascades themselves may be obvious from the data, it is important to understand which states of the system trigger them.…
Bond rating Transition Probability Matrices (TPMs) are built over a one-year time-frame and for many practical purposes, like the assessment of risk in portfolios or the computation of banking Capital Requirements (e.g. the new IFRS 9…
Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) provide a compact and flexible framework to model very complex real-life phenomena. They combine the probability theory which deals with uncertainty and logical structure represented by a graph which…
In recent years there has been a flurry of works on learning Bayesian networks from data. One of the hard problems in this area is how to effectively learn the structure of a belief network from incomplete data- that is, in the presence of…
We developed the language of Modifiable Temporal Belief Networks (MTBNs) as a structural and temporal extension of Bayesian Belief Networks (BNs) to facilitate normative temporal and causal modeling under uncertainty. In this paper we…
Multitype branching processes (MTBP) model branching structures, where the nodes of the resulting tree are objects of different types. One field of application of such models in biology is in studies of cell proliferation. A sampling scheme…
Incomplete data are a common feature in many domains, from clinical trials to industrial applications. Bayesian networks (BNs) are often used in these domains because of their graphical and causal interpretations. BN parameter learning from…
Motivation: Several different threads of research have been proposed for modeling and mining temporal data. On the one hand, approaches such as dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) provide a formal probabilistic basis to model relationships…
In many fields observations are performed irregularly along time, due to either measurement limitations or lack of a constant immanent rate. While discrete-time Markov models (as Dynamic Bayesian Networks) introduce either inefficient…