Related papers: Expectation Maximization and Complex Duration Dist…
Chain Event Graphs (CEGs) are a family of event-based graphical models that represent context-specific conditional independences typically exhibited by asymmetric state space problems. The class of continuous time dynamic CEGs (CT-DCEGs)…
In this paper, we revisit the parameter learning problem, namely the estimation of model parameters for Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs). DBNs are directed graphical models of stochastic processes that encompasses and generalize Hidden…
Learning a Bayesian networks with bounded treewidth is important for reducing the complexity of the inferences. We present a novel anytime algorithm (k-MAX) method for this task, which scales up to thousands of variables. Through extensive…
Most real-world dynamic systems are composed of different components that often evolve at very different rates. In traditional temporal graphical models, such as dynamic Bayesian networks, time is modeled at a fixed granularity, generally…
Bayesian networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models for describing complex joint probability distributions. The main problem for BNs is inference: Determine the probability of an event given observed evidence. Since exact inference…
Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs), renowned for their interpretability, have become increasingly vital in representing complex stochastic processes in various domains such as gene expression analysis, healthcare, and traffic prediction.…
Dynamic Bayesian networks provide a compact and natural representation for complex dynamic systems. However, in many cases, there is no expert available from whom a model can be elicited. Learning provides an alternative approach for…
Bayesian networks are probabilistic graphical models often used in big data analytics. The problem of exact structure learning is to find a network structure that is optimal under certain scoring criteria. The problem is known to be NP-hard…
From genetic regulatory networks to nervous systems, the interactions between elements in biological networks often take a sigmoidal or S-shaped form. This paper develops a probabilistic characterization of the parameter space of…
A Chain Event Graph (CEG) is a graphial model which designed to embody conditional independencies in problems whose state spaces are highly asymmetric and do not admit a natural product structure. In this paer we present a probability…
Diagnosis and prediction in some domains, like medical and industrial diagnosis, require a representation that combines uncertainty management and temporal reasoning. Based on the fact that in many cases there are few state changes in the…
Continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) are popular modeling formalism that constitutes the underlying semantics for real-time probabilistic systems such as queuing networks, stochastic process algebras, and calculi for systems biology. Prism…
Continuous-time Bayesian networks is a natural structured representation language for multicomponent stochastic processes that evolve continuously over time. Despite the compact representation, inference in such models is intractable even…
We study the problem of finite-horizon probabilistic invariance for discrete-time Markov processes over general (uncountable) state spaces. We compute discrete-time, finite-state Markov chains as formal abstractions of general Markov…
Expectation maximisation (EM) is an unsupervised learning method for estimating the parameters of a finite mixture distribution. It works by introducing "hidden" or "latent" variables via Baum's auxiliary function $Q$ that allow the joint…
Inferring the infinitesimal rates of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) is a central challenge in many scientific domains. This task is hindered by three factors: quadratic growth in the number of rates as the CTMC state space expands,…
Despite the superiority of convolutional neural networks demonstrated in time series modeling and forecasting, it has not been fully explored on the design of the neural network architecture and the tuning of the hyper-parameters. Inspired…
Dynamic Bayesian networks have been well explored in the literature as discrete-time models: however, their continuous-time extensions have seen comparatively little attention. In this paper, we propose the first constraint-based algorithm…
Continuous-time branching processes (CTBPs) are powerful tools in random graph theory, but are not appropriate to describe real-world networks, since they produce trees rather than (multi)graphs. In this paper we analyze collapsed branching…
Concept Bottleneck Model (CBM) is a methods for explaining neural networks. In CBM, concepts which correspond to reasons of outputs are inserted in the last intermediate layer as observed values. It is expected that we can interpret the…