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The paper describes a new class of capture-recapture models for closed populations when individual covariates are available. The novelty consists in combining a latent class model for the distribution of the capture history, where the class…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-08 Antonio Forcina , Francesco Bartolucci

We analyse a family of two-types Wright-Fisher models with selection in a random environment and skewed offspring distribution. We provide a calculable criterion to quantify the impact of different shapes of selection on the fate of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-10 Adrián González Casanova , Dario Spanò , Maite Wilke-Berenguer

We present an extension of Eigen's model for quasi-species including the competition among individuals, proposed as the simplest mechanism for the formation of new species in a smooth fitness landscape. We are able to obtain analytically…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-02-03 Franco Bagnoli , Michele Bezzi

We study the evolution of gene frequencies in a population living in $\mathbb{R}^d$, modelled by the spatial Lambda Fleming-Viot process with natural selection (Barton, Etheridge and Veber, 2010 and Etheridge, Veber and Yu, 2014). We…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-04 Raphaël Forien , Sarah Penington

We are interested in modelling Darwinian evolution, resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. Our models are rooted in the microscopic, stochastic description of a population…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Nicolas Champagnat , Régis Ferrière , Sylvie Méléard

We provide two fundamental results on the population (infinite-sample) likelihood function of Gaussian mixture models with $M \geq 3$ components. Our first main result shows that the population likelihood function has bad local maxima even…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-06 Chi Jin , Yuchen Zhang , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Martin J. Wainwright , Michael Jordan

The probability that the frequency of a particular trait will eventually become unity, the so-called fixation probability, is a central issue in the study of population evolution. Its computation, once we are given a stochastic finite…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-11-22 Fabio A. C. C. Chalub , Max O. Souza

Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 50's with the KiSS (after Kierstead, Slobodkin…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-09-07 Stefano Berti , Massimo Cencini , Davide Vergni , Angelo Vulpiani

RNA viruses are known to replicate with extremely high mutation rates. These rates are actually close to the so-called error threshold. This threshold is in fact a critical point beyond which genetic information is lost through a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Romualdo Pastor-Satorras , Ricard V. Sole

For $\Delta \ge 5$ and $q$ large as a function of $\Delta$, we give a detailed picture of the phase transition of the random cluster model on random $\Delta$-regular graphs. In particular, we determine the limiting distribution of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-16 Tyler Helmuth , Matthew Jenssen , Will Perkins

An equation describing the evolution of phenotypic distribution is derived using methods developed in statistical physics. The equation is solved by using the singular perturbation method, and assuming that the number of bases in the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-11-13 Katsuhiko Sato , Kunihiko Kaneko

We consider a periodic extension of the classical Kingman non-linear model (Kingman, 1978) for the balance between selection and mutation in a large population. In the original model, the fitness distribution of the population is modeled by…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-24 Camille Coron , Olivier Hénard

We present a mechanistic formalism for the study of evolutionary dynamics models based on the diffusion approximation described by the Kimura Equation. In this formalism, the central component is the fitness potential, from which we obtain…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-08-23 Fabio A. C. C. Chalub , Max O. Souza

We consider a branching process with Poissonian immigration where individuals have inheritable types. At rate theta, new individuals singly enter the total population and start a new population which evolves like a supercritical,…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-12-02 Mathieu Richard

A general multi-type population model is considered, where individuals live and reproduce according to their age and type, but also under the influence of the size and composition of the entire population. We describe the dynamics of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-13 Jie Yen Fan , Kais Hamza , Peter Jagers , Fima C. Klebaner

The Ewens-Pitman model defines a distribution on random partitions of $\{1,\ldots,n\}$, with parameters $\alpha \in [0,1)$ and $\theta > -\alpha$; the case $\alpha=0$ reduces to the classical Ewens model from population genetics. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-28 Bernard Bercu , Claudia Contardi , Emanuele Dolera , Stefano Favaro

In a view for a simple model where natural selection at the individual level is confronted to selection effects at the group level, we consider some individual-based models of some large population subdivided into a large number of groups.…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-13 Aurélien Velleret

We construct a reliable estimation of evolutionary parameters within the Wright-Fisher model, which describes changes in allele frequencies due to selection and genetic drift, from time-series data. Such data exists for biological…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-05-26 Juan Guerrero Montero , Richard A. Blythe

We study the large-time behavior of Eulerian systems augmented with non-local alignment. Such systems arise as hydrodynamic descriptions of agent-based models for self-organized dynamics, e.g., Cucker-Smale and Motsch-Tadmor models…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2015-06-19 Eitan Tadmor , Changhui Tan

We investigate a continuous time, probability measure-valued dynamical system that describes the process of mutation-selection balance in a context where the population is infinite, there may be infinitely many loci, and there are weak…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-09-20 Steven N. Evans , David Steinsaltz , Kenneth W. Wachter