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Bayesian optimization (BO) provides a powerful framework for optimizing black-box, expensive-to-evaluate functions. It is therefore an attractive tool for engineering design problems, typically involving multiple objectives. Thanks to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-06 Navid Ansari , Alireza Javanmardi , Eyke Hüllermeier , Hans-Peter Seidel , Vahid Babaei

We study a statistical method to estimate the optimal value, and the optimality gap of a given solution for stochastic optimization as an assessment of the solution quality. Our approach is based on bootstrap aggregating, or bagging,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-12-06 Henry Lam , Huajie Qian

Conditional selective inference requires an exact characterization of the selection event, which is often unavailable except for a few examples like the lasso. This work addresses this challenge by introducing a generic approach to estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-22 Sifan Liu , Jelena Markovic-Voronov , Jonathan Taylor

Unlike in the traditional statistical modeling for which a user typically hand-specify a prior, Neural Processes (NPs) implicitly define a broad class of stochastic processes with neural networks. Given a data stream, NP learns a stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-28 Juho Lee , Yoonho Lee , Jungtaek Kim , Eunho Yang , Sung Ju Hwang , Yee Whye Teh

GARCH models are useful tools in the investigation of phenomena, where volatility changes are prominent features, like most financial data. The parameter estimation via quasi maximum likelihood (QMLE) and its properties are by now well…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-09-07 László Varga , András Zempléni

Modern statistical analysis often encounters datasets with large sizes. For these datasets, conventional estimation methods can hardly be used immediately because practitioners often suffer from limited computational resources. In most…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-14 Shuyuan Wu , Xuening Zhu , Hansheng Wang

This paper investigates bootstrap-based bias correction of semiparametric estimators of the long memory parameter, $d$, in fractionally integrated processes. The re-sampling method involves the application of the sieve bootstrap to data…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-08 Don S. Poskitt , Gael M. Martin , Simone D. Grose

We develop a new approach for estimating the risk of an arbitrary estimator of the mean vector in the classical normal means problem. The key idea is to generate two auxiliary data vectors, by adding carefully constructed normal noise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-25 Natalia L. Oliveira , Jing Lei , Ryan J. Tibshirani

We advance the theory of parametric bootstrap in constructing highly efficient empirical best (EB) prediction intervals of small area means. The coverage error of such a prediction interval is of the order $O(m^{-3/2})$, where $m$ is the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-12 Yuting Chen , Masayo Y. Hirose , Partha Lahiri

In reinforcement learning, it is typical to use the empirically observed transitions and rewards to estimate the value of a policy via either model-based or Q-fitting approaches. Although straightforward, these techniques in general yield…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-28 Ilya Kostrikov , Ofir Nachum

A significant hurdle for analyzing large sample data is the lack of effective statistical computing and inference methods. An emerging powerful approach for analyzing large sample data is subsampling, by which one takes a random subsample…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-24 Rong Zhu , Ping Ma , Michael W. Mahoney , Bin Yu

Error assessment for Approximate Query Processing (AQP) is a challenging problem. Bootstrap sampling can produce error assessment even when the population data distribution is unknown. However, bootstrap sampling needs to produce a large…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-08-26 Feng Yu , Raya Jahan

Large Language Models (LLMs) often suffer from overconfidence during inference, particularly when adapted to downstream domain-specific tasks with limited data. Previous work addresses this issue by employing approximate Bayesian estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Yibin Wang , Haizhou Shi , Ligong Han , Dimitris Metaxas , Hao Wang

Widely used methods for analyzing missing data can be biased in small samples. To understand these biases, we evaluate in detail the situation where a small univariate normal sample, with values missing at random, is analyzed using either…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-03-27 Paul T. von Hippel

This paper highlights a tension between semiparametric efficiency and bootstrap consistency in the context of a canonical semiparametric estimation problem, namely the problem of estimating the average density. It is shown that although…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-22 Matias D. Cattaneo , Michael Jansson

The theory of Local Intrinsic Dimensionality (LID) has become a valuable tool for characterizing local complexity within and across data manifolds, supporting a range of data mining and machine learning tasks. Accurate LID estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-26 Kristóf Péter , Ricardo J. G. B. Campello , James Bailey , Michael E. Houle

We develop and implement a novel fast bootstrap for dependent data. Our scheme is based on the i.i.d. resampling of the smoothed moment indicators. We characterize the class of parametric and semi-parametric estimation problems for which…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-19 Davide La Vecchia , Alban Moor , Olivier Scaillet

Bootstrap is a popular methodology for simulating input uncertainty. However, it can be computationally expensive when the number of samples is large. We propose a new approach called \textbf{Orthogonal Bootstrap} that reduces the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-02 Kaizhao Liu , Jose Blanchet , Lexing Ying , Yiping Lu

Empirical best prediction (EBP) is a well-known method for producing reliable proportion estimates when the primary data source provides only small or no sample from finite populations. There are potential challenges in implementing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-22 Aditi Sen , Partha Lahiri

This article presents a bootstrap approximation to the Lp_statistics of kernel density estimator in length-biased model. Length-biased data arise in many situations, such as survival analysis, renewal processes and physics. The article…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-30 Raheleh Zamini