Related papers: The two envelopes probability paradox: Much ado ab…
Two paradoxical aspects of the prevailing kinetic equations are presented. One is related to the usual understanding of distribution function and the other to the usual understanding of the phase space. With help of simple counterexamples…
We argue that whether the universe is infinite or finite is less crucial than usually supposed. Paradoxes of repeating behaviour in the infinite, or eternal inflationary, universe can be alleviated by a realistic definition of differing…
Astrophysical paradoxes are the paradoxes of physics. The main motivation of a formulated paradox is clearly recognized in the scientific environment because the phenomenon of a paradox itself has become interesting. There is an explanation…
The language of probability is used to define several different types of conditional statements. There are four principal types: subjunctive, material, existential, and feasibility. Two further types of conditionals are defined using the…
I think we can agree that dealing with uncertainty is not easy. Probability is the main tool for dealing with uncertainty, and we know there are many probability-related puzzles and paradoxes. Here I describe a rather idiosyncratic…
The process of doing Science in condition of uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning, also relevant in real…
This paper introduces a strategy in the two envelopes problem that utilizes the prior beliefs of two players about the amount of money that their envelopes can contain. This strategy gives them more information about the decision of…
Here, by introducing a version of "Unexpected hanging paradox" we try to open a new way and a new explanation for paradoxes, similar to liar paradox. Also, we will show that we have a semantic situation which no syntactical logical system…
We reveal a contradiction in measure-theoretic probability. The contradiction is an "equation" $1/2 = 0$ with its two sides representing probabilities. Unlike known paradoxes in mathematics, the revealed contradiction cannot be explained…
There is much interest in providing probabilistic semantics for defaults but most approaches seem to suffer from one of two problems: either they require numbers, a problem defaults were intended to avoid, or they generate peculiar side…
In this paper, we provide theoretical and empirical estimates for the likelihood of a negative participation paradox under instant runoff voting in three-candidate elections. We determine the probability of the paradox and related…
The derivation of the quantum retrodictive probability formula involves an error, an ambiguity. The end result is correct because this error appears twice, in such a way as to cancel itself. In addition, however, the usual expression for…
In this work we reexamine the EPR paradox for composite systems with a finite number of levels. The analysis emphasizes the connection between measurements and conditional probabilities. This connection implies that when a measurement is…
In a prediction tournament, contestants "forecast" by asserting a numerical probability for each of (say) 100 future real-world events. The scoring system is designed so that (regardless of the unknown true probabilities) more accurate…
This paper is motivated by the questions of how to give the concept of probability an adequate real-world meaning, and how to explain a certain type of phenomenon that can be found, for instance, in Ellsberg's paradox. It attempts to answer…
The aim of this paper is to show that the concept of probability is best understood by dividing this concept into two different types of probability, namely physical probability and analogical probability. Loosely speaking, a physical…
We present a resolution of the celebrated "Surprise Exam Paradox". We argue that if the surprise exam story is analyzed using the exact same meaning of the notion of "surprise" as is dictated by the story itself, then no paradox arises.
We give a new proof for Godel's second incompleteness theorem, based on Kolmogorov complexity, Chaitin's incompleteness theorem, and an argument that resembles the surprise examination paradox. We then go the other way around and suggest…
Parrondo's paradox is about a paradoxical game and gambling where two probabilistic losing games can be combined to form a winning game. While the counter intuitive game is interesting in itself, it can be thought of a discrete version of…
Simpson's paradox is an obstacle to establishing a probabilistic association between two events $a_1$ and $a_2$, given the third (lurking) random variable $B$. We focus on scenarios when the random variables $A$ (which combines $a_1$,…