Related papers: An epidemic process mediated by a decaying diffusi…
In the present paper, our goal is to establish a framework for the mathematical modelling and the analysis of the spread of an epidemic in a large population commuting regularly, typically along a time-periodic pattern, as is roughly…
We study the spreading of an infection within an SIS epidemiological model on a network. Susceptible agents are given the opportunity of breaking their links with infected agents. Broken links are either permanently removed or reconnected…
For a two-dimensional system of agents modeled by molecular dynamics, we simulate epidemics spreading, which was recently studied on complex networks. Our resulting network model is time-evolving. We study the transitions to spreading as…
It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of…
A deterministic cellular automaton rule defined on the Moore neighbourhood is studied as a model of epidemic propagation. The directed nature of the interaction between cells allows one to introduce the dependence on a disorder parameter…
Prior social contagion models consider the spread of either one contagion at a time on interdependent networks or multiple contagions on single layer networks or under assumptions of competition. We propose a new threshold model for the…
We explore simple models aimed at the study of social contagion, in which contagion proceeds through two stages. When coupled with demographic turnover, we show that two-stage contagion leads to nonlinear phenomena which are not present in…
Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…
We present and analyse a model for cell signalling processes in biological tissues. The model includes diffusion and nonlinear reactions on the cell surfaces, and both inter- and intracellular signalling. Using techniques from the theory of…
The propagation of signalling molecules within cellular networks is affected by network topology, but also by the spatial arrangement of cells in the networks. Understanding the collective reaction--diffusion behaviour in space of signals…
To forecast the time dynamics of an epidemic, we propose a discrete stochastic model that unifies and generalizes previous approaches to the subject. Viewing a given population of individuals or groups of individuals with given health state…
Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorporate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease such as social distancing and adoption of prevention methods. Mobility plays an important…
The stacked contact process is a stochastic model for the spread of an infection within a population of hosts located on the $d$-dimensional integer lattice. Regardless of whether they are healthy or infected, hosts give birth and die at…
We study the problem of estimating the origin of an epidemic outbreak -- given a contact network and a snapshot of epidemic spread at a certain time, determine the infection source. Finding the source is important in different contexts of…
We propose an epidemic compartment model, which includes mortality caused by the disease, but excludes demographic birth and death processes. Individuals are represented by random walkers, which are in one of the following states…
We present a generic epidemic model with stochastic parameters, in which the dynamics self-organize to a critical state with suppressed exponential growth. More precisely, the dynamics evolve into a quasi-steady-state, where the effective…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
The ubiquitous existence of microbial communities marks the importance of understanding how species interact within the community to coexist and their spatial organization. We study a two-species mutualistic cross-feeding model through a…
We investigate the effects of risk perception in a simple model of epidemic spreading. We assume that the perception of the risk of being infected depends on the fraction of neighbors that are ill. The effect of this factor is to decrease…
We consider a time-inhomogeneous diffusion process able to describe the dynamics of infected people in a susceptible-infectious epidemic model in which the transmission intensity function is time-dependent. Such a model is well suited to…