Related papers: An epidemic process mediated by a decaying diffusi…
The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that…
Because of its relevance to everyday life, the spreading of viral infections has been of central interest in a variety of scientific communities involved in fighting, preventing and theoretically interpreting epidemic processes. Recent…
We introduce an epidemic model with varying infectivity and general exposed and infectious periods, where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the elapsed time since infection, those function being i.i.d. for the…
This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a non-exponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multi-stage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard…
Spreading from a seed is studied by Monte Carlo simulation on a square lattice with two types of sites affecting the rates of birth and death. These systems exhibit a critical transition between survival and extinction. For time- dependent…
The recurrent infectious diseases and their increasing impact on the society has promoted the study of strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading. In this review we outline the applications of percolation theory to describe strategies…
In some systems, the behavior of the constituent units can create a `context' that modifies the direct interactions among them. This mechanism of indirect modification inspired us to develop a minimal model of context-dependent spreading.…
A model of interacting agents, following plausible behavioral rules into a world where the Covid-19 epidemic is affecting the actions of everyone. The model works with (i) infected agents categorized as symptomatic or asymptomatic and (ii)…
We study a stochastic epidemic model with multiple patches (locations), where individuals in each patch are categorized into three compartments, Susceptible, Infected and Recovered/Removed, and may migrate from one patch to another in any…
We revisit well-established concepts of epidemiology, the Ising-model, and percolation theory. Also, we employ a spin $S$ = 1/2 Ising-like model and a (logistic) Fermi-Dirac-like function to describe the spread of Covid-19. Our analysis…
Stochastic processes can model many emerging phenomena on networks, like the spread of computer viruses, rumors, or infectious diseases. Understanding the dynamics of such stochastic spreading processes is therefore of fundamental interest.…
One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…
Pathogen introduction in plant communities can cause serious impact and biodiversity losses that may take long time to manage and restore. Effective control of epidemic spreading in the wild is a problem of paramount importance, because of…
We develop a mathematical framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic model of wealth exchange. The multi-agent description leads to study the evolution over time of a…
Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…
In this paper we study a diffusive age structured epidemic model with disease transmission between vector and host populations. The dynamics of the populations are described by reaction-diffusion equations, with infection age structure of…
We consider the qualitative behavior of a mathematical model for transmission dynamics with two nonlinear stages of contagion. The proposed model is inspired by phenomena occurring in epidemiology (spread of infectious diseases) or social…
A model for the spread of an infection is analyzed for different population structures. The interactions within the population are described by small world networks, ranging from ordered lattices to random graphs. For the more ordered…
The vast majority of models for the spread of communicable diseases are parametric in nature and involve underlying assumptions about how the disease spreads through a population. In this article we consider the use of Bayesian…
The paper presents an algorithm for syndromic surveillance of an epidemic outbreak formulated in the context of stochastic nonlinear filtering. The dynamics of the epidemic is modeled using a generalized compartmental epidemiological model…