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In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…

Computation · Statistics 2023-05-23 Quentin Ayoul-Guilmard , Sundar Ganesh , Sebastian Krumscheid , Fabio Nobile

We derive a nonparametric higher-order asymptotic expansion for small-time changes of conditional characteristic functions of It\^o semimartingale increments. The asymptotics setup is of joint type: both the length of the time interval of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-12 Carsten H. Chong , Viktor Todorov

By transferring knowledge learned from seen/previous tasks, meta learning aims to generalize well to unseen/future tasks. Existing meta-learning approaches have shown promising empirical performance on various multiclass classification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-04 Jiechao Guan , Zhiwu Lu , Tao Xiang , Timothy Hospedales

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are used to estimate features of interest of a distribution. The Monte Carlo error in estimation has an asymptotic normal distribution whose multivariate nature has so far been ignored in the MCMC…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-05 Dootika Vats , James M. Flegal , Galin L. Jones

The use of non parametric hidden Markov models with finite state space is flourishing in practice while few theoretical guarantees are known in this framework. Here, we study asymptotic guarantees for these models in the Bayesian framework.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-30 Elodie Vernet

In this paper, we address the stochastic MPC (SMPC) problem for linear systems, subject to chance state constraints and hard input constraints, under unknown noise distribution. First, we reformulate the chance state constraints as…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-05 Charis Stamouli , Anastasios Tsiamis , Manfred Morari , George J. Pappas

We provide an asymptotic expansion of the maximal mean squared error (MSE) of the sample median to be attained on shrinking gross error neighborhoods about an ideal central distribution. More specifically, this expansion comes in powers of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-06-02 Peter Ruckdeschel

The stability of stochastic Model Predictive Control (MPC) subject to additive disturbances is often demonstrated in the literature by constructing Lyapunov-like inequalities that ensure closed-loop performance bounds and boundedness of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-04-07 Diego Muñoz-Carpintero , Mark Cannon

In this paper, we present a novel stochastic output-feedback MPC scheme for distributed systems with additive process and measurement noise. The chance constraints are treated with the concept of probabilistic reachable sets, which, under…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-07 Christoph Mark , Steven Liu

I show how any reversible Markov chain on a finite state space that is irreducible, and hence suitable for estimating expectations with respect to its invariant distribution, can be used to construct a non-reversible Markov chain on a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Radford M. Neal

We assume a drift condition towards a small set and bound the mean square error of estimators obtained by taking averages along a single trajectory of a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We use these bounds to construct fixed-width…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-02-01 Krzysztof Latuszynski , Wojciech Niemiro

The generalized Poor-Verdu error lower bound for multihypothesis testing is revisited. Its asymptotic expression is established in closed-form as its tilting parameter grows to infinity. It is also shown that the asymptotic generalized…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-01-07 Ling-Hua Chang , Po-Ning Chen , Fady Alajaji , Yunghsiang S. Han

We obtain non-symmetric upper and lower bounds on the rate of convergence of general monotone approximation/numerical schemes for parabolic Hamilton Jacobi Bellman Equations by introducing a new notion of consistency. We apply our general…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2009-11-11 Guy Barles , Espen R. Jakobsen

We provide a framework which admits a number of ``marginal'' sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms as particular cases -- including the marginal particle filter [Klaas et al., 2005, in: Proceedings of Uncertainty in Artificial…

Computation · Statistics 2023-03-08 Francesca R. Crucinio , Adam M. Johansen

We consider nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) schemes without stabilizing terminal conditions, where the model used in the optimization step is generated based on input-output data only. We establish exponential stability for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Lea Bold , Irene Schimperna , Karl Worthmann , Johannes Köhler

The aim of this paper is to establish non-asymptotic minimax rates of testing for goodness-of-fit hypotheses in a heteroscedastic setting. More precisely, we deal with sequences $(Y_j)_{j\in J}$ of independent Gaussian random variables,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-02-09 Béatrice Laurent , Jean-Michel Loubès , Clément Marteau

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-04 Pierre Del Moral , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

A standard approach to computing expectations with respect to a given target measure is to introduce an overdamped Langevin equation which is reversible with respect to the target distribution, and to approximate the expectation by a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-04-20 A. B. Duncan , T. Lelievre , G. A. Pavliotis

This paper studies consensus of discrete-time multi-agent systems under time-varying directed communication, state and input constraints using a distributed multi-step model predictive control (MPC) framework. Consensus is recast as…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-18 Navid Noroozi

This paper provides sufficient conditions over the sequence of samples and parameters of an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to ensure ergodicity with respect to a target distribution that can have unbounded support. These…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-17 Alexandre Chotard