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The accurate prediction of short-term electricity prices is vital for effective trading strategies, power plant scheduling, profit maximisation and efficient system operation. However, uncertainties in supply and demand make such…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-20 Mira Watermeyer , Thomas Möbius , Oliver Grothe , Felix Müsgens

In this paper, we formulate a general time-inconsistent stochastic linear--quadratic (LQ) control problem. The time-inconsistency arises from the presence of a quadratic term of the expected state as well as a state-dependent term in the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2011-11-04 Ying Hu , Hanqing Jin , Xun Yu Zhou

Model uncertainty is a type of inevitable financial risk. Mistakes on the choice of pricing model may cause great financial losses. In this paper we investigate financial markets with mean-volatility uncertainty. Models for stock markets…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2014-07-31 Yuhong Xu

We study a financial model with a non-trivial price impact effect. In this model we consider the interaction of a large investor trading in an illiquid security, and a market maker who is quoting prices for this security. We assume that the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2009-10-20 David German

Due to the limited predictability of wind power and other stochastic generation, trading this energy in competitive electricity markets is challenging. This paper derives revenue-maximising and risk-constrained strategies for stochastic…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-05-31 Jethro Browell

In a market with one safe and one risky asset, an investor with a long horizon, constant investment opportunities, and constant relative risk aversion trades with small proportional transaction costs. We derive explicit formulas for the…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-01-15 Stefan Gerhold , Paolo Guasoni , Johannes Muhle-Karbe , Walter Schachermayer

We study the optimal timing of derivative purchases in incomplete markets. In our model, an investor attempts to maximize the spread between her model price and the offered market price through optimally timing her purchase. Both the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2011-10-12 Tim Leung , Michael Ludkovski

We study a generalization of the model of a dark market due to Duffie-G\^arleanu- Pedersen [6]. Our market is segmented and involves multiple assets. We show that this market has a unique asymptotically stable equilibrium. In order to…

General Economics · Economics 2018-07-23 Alain Bélanger , Ndouné Ndouné , Roland Pongou

We use a continuous version of the standard deviation premium principle for pricing in incomplete equity markets by assuming that the investor issuing an unhedgeable derivative security requires compensation for this risk in the form of a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2008-12-02 Erhan Bayraktar , Virginia R. Young

The stochastic multi-armed bandit has provided a framework for studying decision-making in unknown environments. We propose a variant of the stochastic multi-armed bandit where the rewards are sampled from a stochastic linear dynamical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-13 Jonathan Gornet , Mehdi Hosseinzadeh , Bruno Sinopoli

In intertemporal settings, the multiattribute utility theory of Kihlstrom and Mirman suggests the application of a concave transform of the lifetime utility index. This construction, while allowing time and risk attitudes to be separated,…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-07 Luca De Gennaro Aquino , Sascha Desmettre , Yevhen Havrylenko , Mogens Steffensen

This article considers the pricing and hedging of a call option when liquidity matters, that is, either for a large nominal or for an illiquid underlying asset. In practice, as opposed to the classical assumptions of a price-taking agent in…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-04-06 Olivier Guéant , Jiang Pu

We introduce a stochastic price model where, together with a random component, a moving average of logarithmic prices contributes to the price formation. Our model is tested against financial datasets, showing an extremely good agreement…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2008-12-02 R. Baviera , M. Pasquini , J. Raboanary , M. Serva

We show that financial correlations exhibit a non-trivial dynamic behavior. We introduce a simple phenomenological model of a multi-asset financial market, which takes into account the impact of portfolio investment on price dynamics. This…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-11 Giacomo Raffaelli , Matteo Marsili

The Combinatorial Multi-Round Ascending Auction (CMRA) is a new auction format used in recent European spectrum auctions. We show that an auction-specific version of truthful bidding leads to an efficient allocation. We then characterize…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-10-23 Bernhard Kasberger , Alexander Teytelboym

The question of pricing and hedging a given contingent claim has a unique solution in a complete market framework. When some incompleteness is introduced, the problem becomes however more difficult. Several approaches have been adopted in…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-08-08 Pauline Barrieu , Nicole El Karoui

The problem of multi-area interchange scheduling under system uncertainty is considered. A new scheduling technique is proposed for a multi-proxy bus system based on stochastic optimization that captures uncertainty in renewable generation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-11-16 Yuting Ji , Lang Tong

This work extends a previous work in regime detection, which allowed trading positions to be profitably adjusted when a new regime was detected, to ex ante prediction of regimes, leading to substantial performance improvements over the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-10-10 Piotr Pomorski , Denise Gorse

This paper develops a flexible and computationally efficient multivariate volatility model, which allows for dynamic conditional correlations and volatility spillover effects among financial assets. The new model has desirable properties…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-25 Wenyu Li , Yuchang Lin , Qianqian Zhu , Guodong Li

We propose a frustrated and disordered many-body model of a stockmarket in which independent adaptive traders can trade a stock subject to the economic law of supply and demand. We show that the typical scaling properties and the correlated…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Fabio Franci , Lorenzo Matassini