Related papers: Real GDP per capita since 1870
An empirical model is presented linking inflation and unemployment rate to the change in the level of labour force in Switzerland. The involved variables are found to be cointegrated and we estimate lagged linear deterministic relationships…
In a recent study (Garrett, 2011), I described theoretical arguments and empirical evidence showing how civilization evolution might be considered from a purely physical basis. One implication is that civilization exhibits the property of…
This paper investigates Minsky's cycles by extending the paper of stockhammer et al. (2019) with a nonlinear model to capture possible local real-financial endogenous cycles. We trace nonlinear regime changes and check the presence of…
This work analyzes the Gompertz-Pareto distribution (GPD) of personal income, formed by the combination of the Gompertz curve, representing the overwhelming majority of the economically less favorable part of the population of a country,…
Historical economic growth in Latin America is analysed using the data of Maddison. Unified Growth Theory is found to be contradicted by these data in the same way as it is contradicted by the economic growth in Africa, Asia, former USSR,…
The Latin American region has suffered an economic slowdown since the end of the commodities boom. Within this context, Chile was the poster child of economic growth and development up until 2014. Since then, Chile has also been trapped in…
This paper considers an often forgotten relationship, the time delay between a cause and its effect in economies and finance. We treat the case of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth, - measured through a country Gross…
Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches…
The recent discovery of long term growth constants in the accumulation of atmospheric CO2, confirmed by two methods, enables analog methods for dating the beginning of climate change at ~1780 and projecting its near term future. Here we…
This paper develops a methodology for tracking in real time the impact of shocks (such as natural disasters, financial crises or pandemics) on gross domestic product (GDP) by analyzing high-frequency electricity market data. As an…
Economic growth and the growth of human population in the past 2,000,000 years are extensively examined. Data are found to be in a clear contradiction of the currently accepted explanations of the mechanism of growth, which revolve around…
The paper studies the nowcasting of Euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth using mixed data sampling machine learning panel data regressions with both standard macro releases and daily news data. Using a panel of 19 Euro area…
The paper deals with the construction of a synthetic indicator of economic growth, obtained by projecting a quarterly measure of aggregate economic activity, namely gross domestic product (GDP), into the space spanned by a finite number of…
A new algorithm of the analysis of correlation among economy time series is proposed. The algorithm is based on the power law classification scheme (PLCS) followed by the analysis of the network on the percolation threshold (NPT). The…
Warning signs about the developing economic crisis in Greece were present in the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and in the growth of the GDP well before the economic collapse. The growth rate was strongly unstable. On…
We apply the concept of Rayleigh-Jeans thermalization of classical fields for a description of the world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) distribution over countries. The thermalization appears due to a variety of interactions between countries…
A single social phenomenon (such as crime, unemployment or birth rate) can be observed through temporal series corresponding to units at different levels (cities, regions, countries...). Units at a given local level may follow a collective…
Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had a natural tendency to follow hyperbolic…
Since the beginning of this century the Colombian monetary authority has conducted monetary policy under a strategy based on setting targets for interest rate and inflation, while allowing the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar in domestic…
The share of the world population living in cities with more than one million people rose from 11% in 1975 to 24% in 2025 (our estimates). Will this trend towards greater concentration in large cities continue or level off? We introduce two…