Related papers: Real GDP per capita since 1870
This paper examines the effects of daily temperature fluctuations on subnational economic growth in Thailand. Using annual gross provincial product (GPP) per capita data from 1982 to 2022 and high-resolution reanalysis weather data, I…
We test the international applicability of Friedman s famous plucking theory of the business cycle in 12 advanced economies between 1970 and 2021. We find that in countries where labour markets are flexible (Australia, Canada, United…
The aim of this work is to establish the personal income distribution from the elementary constituents of a free market; products of a representative good and agents forming the economic network. The economy is treated as a self-organized…
Concerns about declining or ageing populations often centre on the fear that fewer people will translate to a weaker economy and lower living standards. But these fears are frequently based on oversimplified or misapplied interpretations of…
We propose a complete reconciliation procedure, resulting in a 'one number forecast' of the GDP figure, coherent with both Income and Expenditure sides' forecasted series, and evaluate its performance on the Australian quarterly GDP series,…
Galor discovered many mysteries of the growth process. He lists them in his Unified Growth Theory and wonders how they can be explained. Close inspection of his mysteries reveals that they are of his own creation. They do not exist. He…
Data describing the historical growth of human population global and regional (Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, former USSR, Africa and Latin America) are analysed. Results are in harmony with the earlier analysis of the historical…
Global inequality has shifted inward, with rising dispersion increasingly occurring within countries rather than between them. Using 8,790 newly harmonised Functional Urban Areas (FUAs), micro-founded labour-market regions encompassing 3.9…
What predicts the evolution over time of subjective well-being? We correlate the trends of subjective well-being with the trends of social capital and/or GDP. We find that in the long and medium run social capital largely predicts the…
This paper develops a mixed frequency vector autoregressive (MF-VAR) model to produce nowcasts and historical estimates of monthly real state-level GDP for the 50 U.S. states, plus Washington DC, from 1964 through the present day. The…
Globalization processes interweave economic structures at a worldwide scale, trade playing a central role as one of the elemental channels of interaction among countries. Despite the significance of such phenomena, measuring economic…
Energy usage and GDP have been the subject of numerous studies over the past decades. It has been overlooked by previous studies that energy consumption correlates with economic growth in relation to GDP. This study uses threshold…
The fixed-event forecasting setup is common in economic policy. It involves a sequence of forecasts of the same (`fixed') predictand, so that the difficulty of the forecasting problem decreases over time. Fixed-event point forecasts are…
The major study by Bordo and Helbing (2003) analyses the business cycle in Western economies 1881-2001. They examine four distinct periods in economic history, and conclude that there is a secular trend towards greater synchronisation for…
This paper presents a simple model to measure the relative economic growth of economic systems. The model considers S-Shaped patterns of economic growth that, represented with a linear model, measure how an economic system grows in…
Labor productivity in Turkey, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, and New Zealand has been analyzed and modeled. These counties extend the previously analyzed set of the US, UK, Japan, France, Italy, and Canada. Modelling is based on the…
We describe the simulation method of modelling the population evolution using Monte Carlo based on the Penna model. Individuals in the populations are represented by their diploid genomes. Genes expressed after the minimum reproduction age…
The evolution of the rate of price inflation and unemployment in Japan has been modeled within the Phillips curve framework. As an extension to the Phillips curve, we represent both variables as linear functions of the change rate of labor…
Economic growth is unpredictable unless demand is quantified. We solve this problem by introducing the demand for unpaid spare time and a user quantity named human capacity. It organizes and amplifies spare time required for enjoying…
The distribution of income and wealth in developed economies exhibits a robust two-class structure: an exponential (Boltzmann--Gibbs) bulk covering $\sim\!97\%$ of the population, and a power-law (Pareto) tail in the upper $\sim\!3\%$. We…