Related papers: Reconstructed Total Solar Irradiance as a precurso…

Forecasting future solar activity has become crucial in our modern world, where intense eruptive phenomena mostly occurring during solar maximum are likely to be strongly damaging to satellites and telecommunications. We present a 4D…

The subject of this paper is the existence and stability of solar cycles with durations in the range of 20-250 years. Five types of data series are used: 1) The Zurich series (1749-2009 AD), the mean annual International sunspot number Ri,…

We present a new empirical model of total and spectral solar irradiance (TSI and SSI) variability entitled EMPirical Irradiance REconstruction (EMPIRE). As with existing empirical models, TSI and SSI variability is given by the linear…

The last solar minimum was, by recent standards, unusually deep and long. We are now close to the maximum of the subsequent solar cycle, which is relatively weak. In this article we make comparisons between different global (unresolved)…

Using Greenwich and SOON sunspot group data during the period 1874 -- 2005, we find that the sums of the areas of the sunspot groups in $0^\circ$ -- $10^\circ$ latitude-interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval,…

This paper compares different forecasting methods and models to predict average values of solar irradiance with a sampling time of 15 min over a prediction horizon of up to 3 h. The methods considered only require historic solar irradiance…

The prediction of solar activity is important for advanced technologies and space activities. The peak sunspot number (SSN), which can represent the solar activity, has declined continuously in the past four solar cycles (21$-$24), and the…

Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum can have important…

Sunspot Cycle 25 over 3 years past the cycle minimum of December 2019. At this point, curve-fitting becomes reliable and consistently indicates a maximum sunspot number of 135+/-10 - slightly larger than Cycle 24's maximum of 116.4, but…

Group sunspot number (GSN) series constitute the longest instrumental astronomical database providing information on solar activity. It is a compilation of observations by many individual observers, and their inter-calibration has usually…

The Sun's net radiative output varies on timescales of minutes to gigayears. Direct measurements of the total solar irradiance (TSI) show changes in the spatially- and spectrally-integrated radiant energy on timescales as short as minutes…

An algebraic method for the reconstruction and potentially prediction of the solar dipole moment value at sunspot minimum (known to be a good predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle) was suggested in the first paper in this…

We present a new model of total solar irradiance (TSI) based on magnetograms simulated with a surface flux transport model (SFTM) and the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions) model. Our model provides daily maps of the…

A novel method for real-time solar generation forecast using weather data, while exploiting both spatial and temporal structural dependencies is proposed. The network observed over time is projected to a lower-dimensional representation…

The Sun's polar magnetic fields are directly related to solar cycle variability. The strength of the polar fields at the start (minimum) of a cycle determine the subsequent amplitude of that cycle. In addition, the polar field reversals at…

Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce and because the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly…

The length of the solar activity cycle fluctuates considerably. The temporal evolution of the corresponding cycle phase, that is, the deviation of the epochs of activity minima or maxima from strict periodicity, provides relevant…

Having advanced knowledge of solar activity is important because the Sun's magnetic output governs space weather and impacts technologies reliant on space. However, the irregular nature of the solar cycle makes solar activity predictions a…

Context. There is no consensus on the amplitude of the historical solar forcing. The estimated magnitude of the total solar irradiance difference between Maunder minimum and present time ranges from 0.1 to 6 W/m2 making uncertain the…

Solar activity is studied using a cluster analysis of the time-fluctuations of sunspot number. In the historic period (1850-1932) the cluster exponent was approximately equal to 0.37 (strong clustering) for the high activity components of…