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We propose and experimentally demonstrate an innovative stock index prediction method using a weighted optical reservoir computing system. We construct fundamental market data combined with macroeconomic data and technical indicators to…
We consider the pricing of variable annuities (VAs) with general fee structures under popular stochastic volatility models such as Heston, Hull-White, Scott, $\alpha$-Hypergeometric, $3/2$, and $4/2$ models. In particular, we analyze the…
We introduce a class of randomly time-changed fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models and, using spectral theory and singular perturbation techniques, we derive an approximation for the prices of European options in this setting.…
We develop a practical approach to establish the stability, that is, the recurrence in a given set, of a large class of controlled Markov chains. These processes arise in various areas of applied science and encompass important numerical…
Volatility measures the amplitude of price fluctuations. Despite it is one of the most important quantities in finance, volatility is not directly observable. Here we apply a maximum likelihood method which assumes that price and volatility…
We construct a general stochastic process and prove weak convergence results. It is scaled in space and through the parameters of its distribution. We show that our simplified scaling is equivalent to time scaling used frequently. The…
We provide a numerically robust and fast method capable of exploiting the local geometry when solving large-scale stochastic optimisation problems. Our key innovation is an auxiliary variable construction coupled with an inverse Hessian…
This paper presents a novel approach to predicting stock prices using technical analysis. By utilizing Ito's lemma and Euler-Maruyama methods, the researchers develop Heston and Geometric Brownian Motion models that take into account…
We simultaneously estimate the four parameters of a subcritical Heston process. We do not restrict ourself to the case where the stochastic volatility process never reaches zero. In order to avoid the use of unmanageable stopping times and…
We establish the weak convergence of the intensity of a nearly-unstable Hawkes process with heavy-tailed kernel. Our result is used to derive a scaling limit for a financial market model where orders to buy or sell an asset arrive according…
Binomial trees are widely used in the financial sector for valuing securities with early exercise characteristics, such as American stock options. However, while effective in many scenarios, pricing options with CRR binomial trees are…
Consider a discrete finite-dimensional, Markovian market model. In this setting, discretely sampled American options can be priced using the so-called ``non-recombining'' tree algorithm. By successively increasing the number of exercise…
Consider a process, stochastic or deterministic, obtained by using a numerical integration scheme, or from Monte-Carlo methods involving an approximation to an integral, or a Newton-Raphson iteration to approximate the root of an equation.…
The use of sequential Monte Carlo within simulation for path-dependent option pricing is proposed and evaluated. Recently, it was shown that explicit solutions and importance sampling are valuable for efficient simulation of spot price and…
The recently developed rough Bergomi (rBergomi) model is a rough fractional stochastic volatility (RFSV) model which can generate more realistic term structure of at-the-money volatility skews compared with other RFSV models. However, its…
We obtain a decomposition of the call option price for a very general stochastic volatility diffusion model extending the decomposition obtained by E. Al\`os in [2] for the Heston model. We realize that a new term arises when the stock…
Many random processes can be simulated as the output of a deterministic model accepting random inputs. Such a model usually describes a complex mathematical or physical stochastic system and the randomness is introduced in the input…
Most of the empirical studies on stochastic volatility dynamics favor the 3/2 specification over the square-root (CIR) process in the Heston model. In the context of option pricing, the 3/2 stochastic volatility model is reported to be able…
We study nearly unstable bivariate cumulative heavy-tailed INAR($\infty$) processes and show that, under a one-factor parameterization and a suitable scaling, they converge to the rough Heston model. This yields a discrete-time…
This paper studies function approximation for finite horizon discrete time Markov decision processes under certain convexity assumptions. Uniform convergence of these approximations on compact sets is proved under several sampling schemes…