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We study the use of Temporal-Difference learning for estimating the structural parameters in dynamic discrete choice models. Our algorithms are based on the conditional choice probability approach but use functional approximations to…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-12-23 Karun Adusumilli , Dita Eckardt

Given a finite collection of probability measures defined on subsets of a measurable space, how can we determine if they are compatible, in the sense that they can be realized as conditional distributions of a single probability measure on…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-11 Owen D. Biesel , Colin McSwiggen , Ted Theodosopoulos , Michael G. Titelbaum

A joint conditional autoregressive expectile and Expected Shortfall framework is proposed. The framework is extended through incorporating a measurement equation which models the contemporaneous dependence between the realized measures and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-06-25 Chao Wang , Richard Gerlach

Path planning in a changing environment is a challenging task in robotics, as moving objects impose time-dependent constraints. Recent planning methods primarily focus on the spatial aspects, lacking the capability to directly incorporate…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Xi Huang , Gergely Sóti , Christoph Ledermann , Björn Hein , Torsten Kröger

Generalized conditional expectations, optional projections and predictable projections of stochastic processes play important roles in the general theory of stochastic processes, semimartingale theory and stochastic calculus. They share…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-25 Liang Hong

For any injective von Neumann algebra R and any discrete, countable group G, which acts by *-automorphisms on R, we construct an idempotent mapping of an ultra-weakly dense subspace of B(H) onto the reducerd crossed product von Neumann…

Operator Algebras · Mathematics 2020-06-15 Erik Christensen

Given a bounded class of functions G and independent random variables X1, . . . , Xn, we provide an upper bound for the expectation of the supremum of the empirical process over elements of G having a small variance. Our bound applies in…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-08 Yannick Baraud

Conformal prediction, and split conformal prediction as a specific implementation, offer a distribution-free approach to estimating prediction intervals with statistical guarantees. Recent work has shown that split conformal prediction can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Nicolas Dewolf , Bernard De Baets , Willem Waegeman

A composite likelihood is a combination of low-dimensional likelihood objects useful in applications where the data have complex structure. Although composite likelihood construction is a crucial aspect influencing both computing and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-26 Zhendong Huang , Davide Ferrari

Structural causal models are the basic modelling unit in Pearl's causal theory; in principle they allow us to solve counterfactuals, which are at the top rung of the ladder of causation. But they often contain latent variables that limit…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas

We propose a robust method for constructing conditionally valid prediction intervals based on models for conditional distributions such as quantile and distribution regression. Our approach can be applied to important prediction problems…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-26 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wüthrich , Yinchu Zhu

In this paper, we propose a sampling-based motion planning algorithm that finds an infinite path satisfying a Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) formula over a set of properties satisfied by some regions in a given environment. The algorithm has…

Robotics · Computer Science 2013-07-30 Cristian Ioan Vasile , Calin Belta

The objective of this paper is to establish the decomposition theorem for supermartingales under the $G$-framework. We first introduce a $g$-nonlinear expectation via a kind of $G$-BSDE and the associated supermartingales. We have shown…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-10 Hanwu Li , Shige Peng , Yongsheng Song

Composite likelihood has shown promise in settings where the number of parameters $p$ is large due to its ability to break down complex models into simpler components, thus enabling inference even when the full likelihood is not tractable.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-21 Claudia Di Caterina , Davide Ferrari

We give a finite-sample analysis of predictive inference procedures after model selection in regression with random design. The analysis is focused on a statistically challenging scenario where the number of potentially important…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-26 Hannes Leeb

This work derives closed-form expressions computing the expectation of co-presence and of number of co-occurrences of nodes on paths sampled from a network according to general path weights (a bag of paths). The underlying idea is that two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-24 Guillaume Guex , Sylvain Courtain , Marco Saerens

Results on continuous dependence on parameters, as well as on regularization, of solutions to linear systems of parabolic partial differential equations of second order with delay are given. One of the main features is that the topology on…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2024-08-07 Marek Kryspin , Janusz Mierczyński

Real-world road networks have an approximate scale-invariance property; can one devise mathematical models of random networks whose distributions are {\em exactly} invariant under Euclidean scaling? This requires working in the continuum…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-04 David J. Aldous

Structural failure time models are causal models for estimating the effect of time-varying treatments on a survival outcome. G-estimation and artificial censoring have been proposed to estimate the model parameters in the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-19 Shu Yang , Karen Pieper , Frank Cools

Motivated by the pressing request of methods able to create prediction sets in a general regression framework for a multivariate functional response and pushed by new methodological advancements in non-parametric prediction for functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-04 Jacopo Diquigiovanni , Matteo Fontana , Simone Vantini
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