Related papers: A categorical foundation for Bayesian probability

The Bayesian evidence, crucial ingredient for model selection, is arguably the most important quantity in Bayesian data analysis: at the same time, however, it is also one of the most difficult to compute. In this paper we present a…

Frequentist conditions for asymptotic suitability of Bayesian procedures focus on lower bounds for prior mass in Kullback-Leibler neighbourhoods of the data distribution. The goal of this paper is to investigate the flexibility in criteria…

In this paper we leverage on probability over Riemannian manifolds to rethink the interpretation of priors and posteriors in Bayesian inference. The main mindshift is to move away from the idea that "a prior distribution establishes a…

We give a highly efficient "semi-agnostic" algorithm for learning univariate probability distributions that are well approximated by piecewise polynomial density functions. Let $p$ be an arbitrary distribution over an interval $I$ which is…

We first present a modern simple proof of the classical ergodic Birkhoff's theorem and Bourgain's homogeneous bilinear ergodic theorem. This proof used the simple fact that the shift map on integers has a simple Lebesgue spectrum. As a…

Bayesian optimal design is a well-established approach to planning experiments. A distribution for the responses, i.e. a statistical model, is assumed which is dependent on unknown parameters. A utility function is then specified giving…

Bayesian change-point and segmentation models provide uncertainty-aware piecewise-constant representations of ordered data, but exact inference is often limited to narrow likelihood classes, single sequences, or index-uniform designs. We…

Ranking, and inferences based on ranking of a set of entities, are important problems in numerous contexts. This is especially true in small area statistics where there may be only a limited amount of directly observed data from each entity…

This paper proposes Bayesian mosaic, a parallelizable composite posterior, for scalable Bayesian inference on a broad class of multivariate discrete data models. Sampling is embarrassingly parallel since Bayesian mosaic is a multiplication…

We propose a new model selection method, the posterior averaging information criterion, for Bayesian model assessment from a predictive perspective. The theoretical foundation is built on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the…

A new methodology for model determination in decomposable graphical Gaussian models is developed. The Bayesian paradigm is used and, for each given graph, a hyper inverse Wishart prior distribution on the covariance matrix is considered.…

We extend the Kolmogorov--Smirnov (K-S) test to multiple dimensions by suggesting a $\mathbb{R}^n \rightarrow [0,1]$ mapping based on the probability content of the highest probability density region of the reference distribution under…

We distinguish two questions (i) how much information does the prior contain? and (ii) what is the effect of the prior? Several measures have been proposed for quantifying effective prior sample size, for example Clarke [1996] and Morita et…

Assume we have potential "causes" $z\in Z$, which produce "events" $w$ with known probabilities $\beta(w|z)$. We observe $w_1,w_2,...,w_n$, what can we say about the distribution of the causes? A Bayesian estimate will assume a prior on…

It is proposed that to the usual probability theory, three definitions and a new theorem are added, the resulting theory allows one to displace the central role usually given to the notion of conditional probability. When a mapping $\phi$…

Imagine that you could calculate of posttest probabilities, i.e. Bayes theorem with simple addition. This is possible if we stop thinking of probabilities as ranging from 0 to 1.0. There is a naturally occurring linear probability space…

A composite likelihood is a non-genuine likelihood function that allows to make inference on limited aspects of a model, such as marginal or conditional distributions. Composite likelihoods are not proper likelihoods and need therefore…

We propose a new, more general definition of extended probability measures. We study their properties and provide a behavioral interpretation. We put them to use in an inference procedure, whose environment is canonically represented by the…

Let h \subset g be an inclusion of Lie algebras with quotient h-module n. There is a natural degree filtration on the h-module U(g)/U(g)h whose associated graded h-module is isomorphic to S(n). We give a necessary and sufficient condition…

We present an exact Bayesian inference method for inferring posterior distributions encoded by probabilistic programs featuring possibly unbounded loops. Our method is built on a denotational semantics represented by probability generating…