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Bayesian hypothesis testing is re-examined from the perspective of an a priori assessment of the test statistic distribution under the alternative. By assessing the distribution of an observable test statistic, rather than prior parameter…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-28 Hedibert F. Lopes , Nicholas G. Polson

We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-27 Siddhartha Chib , Minchul Shin , Anna Simoni

The problem of sequential probability forecasting is considered in the most general setting: a model set C is given, and it is required to predict as well as possible if any of the measures (environments) in C is chosen to generate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-25 Daniil Ryabko

We study the convergence rates of empirical Bayes posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We show that as long as the hyperparameter set is discrete, the empirical Bayes posterior distribution induced by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-10 Fengshuo Zhang , Chao Gao

We study the rates of convergence of the posterior distribution for Bayesian density estimation with Dirichlet mixtures of normal distributions as the prior. The true density is assumed to be twice continuously differentiable. The bandwidth…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Subhashis Ghosal , Aad van der Vaart

The problem is sequence prediction in the following setting. A sequence $x_1,...,x_n,...$ of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) $\mu$. After observing each outcome, it is required…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-03-20 Daniil Ryabko

We present a novel proof of de Finetti's Theorem characterizing permutation-invariant probability measures of infinite sequences of variables, so-called exchangeable measures. The proof is phrased in the language of Markov categories, which…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-08 Tobias Fritz , Tomáš Gonda , Paolo Perrone

The contribution of this work is twofold. The first part deals with a Hilbert-space version of McCann's celebrated result on the existence and uniqueness of monotone measure-preserving maps: given two probability measures $\rm P$ and $\rm…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-23 Alberto González-Sanz , Marc Hallin , Bodhisattva Sen

We extend the theoretical framework of proof mining by establishing general logical metatheorems that allow for the extraction of the computational content of theorems with prima facie "non-computational" proofs from probability theory,…

Logic · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Morenikeji Neri , Nicholas Pischke

The well-known Heyde theorem characterizes the Gaussian distributions on the real line by the symmetry of the conditional distribution of one linear form of independent random variables given another. We generalize this theorem to groups of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-31 Gennadiy Feldman

The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-05-02 David R. Bickel

We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-24 Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Gael M. Martin , David T. Frazier

Tree-based priors for probability distributions are usually specified using a predetermined, data-independent collection of candidate recursive partitions of the sample space. To characterize an unknown target density in detail over the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-14 Li Ma , Benedetta Bruni

According to Haar's Theorem, every compact group $G$ admits a unique (regular, right and) left-invariant Borel probability measure $\mu_G$. Let the Haar integral (of $G$) denote the functional $\int_G:\mathcal{C}(G)\ni f\mapsto \int…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2019-10-30 Arno Pauly , Dongseong Seon , Martin Ziegler

Let $\mathscr{H}$ be a finite-dimensional complex Hilbert space and $\mathscr{D}$ the set of density matrices on $\mathscr{H}$, i.e., the positive operators with trace 1. Our goal in this note is to identify a probability measure $u$ on…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-07-06 Eddy Keming Chen , Roderich Tumulka

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Shirin Golchi , James Willard

To the frequentist who computes posteriors, not all priors are useful asymptotically: in this paper Schwartz's 1965 Kullback-Leibler condition is generalised to enable frequentist interpretation of convergence of posterior distributions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-28 B. J. K. Kleijn

The statistical inverse problem of estimating the probability distribution of an infinite-dimensional unknown given its noisy indirect observation is studied in the Bayesian framework. In practice, one often considers only…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-21 Sari Lasanen

We introduce a general IFS Bayesian method for getting posterior probabilities from prior probabilities, and also a generalized Bayes' rule, which will contemplate a dynamical, as well as a non-dynamical setting. Given a loss function…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-09-08 Artur O. Lopes , Jairo. K. Mengue

A critical step in data analysis for many different types of experiments is the identification of features with theoretically defined shapes in N-dimensional datasets; examples of this process include finding peaks in multi-dimensional…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-08-25 Korak Kumar Ray , Anjali R. Verma , Ruben L. Gonzalez , Colin D. Kinz-Thompson