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We provide closed-form market equilibrium formula consolidating informational imperfections and investors beliefs. Based on Merton's model, we characterize the equilibrium expected excess returns vector with incomplete information. We then…
We show that for several variations of partially observable Markov decision processes, polynomial-time algorithms for finding control policies are unlikely to or simply don't have guarantees of finding policies within a constant factor or a…
Markov decision processes (MDP) and continuous-time MDP (CTMDP) are the fundamental models for non-deterministic systems with probabilistic uncertainty. Mean payoff (a.k.a. long-run average reward) is one of the most classic objectives…
As markets have digitized, the number of tradable products has skyrocketed. Algorithmically constructed portfolios of these assets now dominate public and private markets, resulting in a combinatorial explosion of tradable assets. In this…
We consider asset price models whose dynamics are described by linear functions of the (time extended) signature of a primary underlying process, which can range from a (market-inferred) Brownian motion to a general multidimensional…
This paper addresses the question of how an arbitrage-free semimartingale model is affected when stopped at a random horizon. We focus on No-Unbounded-Profit-with-Bounded-Risk (called NUPBR hereafter) concept, which is also known in the…
Sequential decision-making systems routinely operate with missing or incomplete data. Classical reinforcement learning theory, which is commonly used to solve sequential decision problems, assumes Markovian observability, which may not hold…
Expanding the ideas of the author's paper 'Nonexpansive maps and option pricing theory' (Kibernetica 34:6 (1998), 713-724) we develop a pure game-theoretic approach to option pricing, by-passing stochastic modeling. Risk neutral…
The classical reduced-form and filtration expansion framework in credit risk is extended to the case of multiple, non-ordered defaults, assuming that conditional densities of the default times exist. Intensities and pricing formulas are…
We consider Markov-switching regression models, i.e. models for time series regression analyses where the functional relationship between covariates and response is subject to regime switching controlled by an unobservable Markov chain.…
This work focuses on financial risks from a probabilistic point of view. The value of a firm is described as a geometric Brownian motion and default emerges as a first passage time event. On the technical side, the critical threshold that…
Euclidean Markov decision processes are a powerful tool for modeling control problems under uncertainty over continuous domains. Finite state imprecise, Markov decision processes can be used to approximate the behavior of these infinite…
We characterise the solutions to a continuous-time optimal liquidity provision problem in a market populated by informed and uninformed traders. In our model, the asset price exhibits fads -- these are short-term deviations from the…
Priced timed automata provide a natural model for quantitative analysis of real-time systems and have been successfully applied in various scheduling and planning problems. The optimal reachability problem for linearly-priced timed automata…
Is an option to early terminate a swap at its market value worth zero? At first sight it is, but in presence of counterparty risk it depends on the criteria used to determine such market value. In case of a single uncollateralised swap…
We consider the problem of estimating the transition rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain from a finite-duration realisation of this process. We approach this problem in an imprecise probabilistic framework, using a set of prior…
This article presents a generic model for pricing financial derivatives subject to counterparty credit risk. Both unilateral and bilateral types of credit risks are considered. Our study shows that credit risk should be modeled as American…
This paper studies continuous-time Markov decision processes under the risk-sensitive average cost criterion. The state space is a finite set, the action space is a Borel space, the cost and transition rates are bounded, and the…
We introduce a double/debiased machine learning estimator for the impulse response function in settings where a time series of interest is subjected to multiple discrete treatments, assigned over time, which can have a causal effect on…
In exponential semi-martingale setting for risky asset we estimate the difference of prices of options when initial physical measure $P$ and corresponding martingale measure $Q$ change to $\tilde{P}$ and $\tilde{Q}$ respectively. Then, we…