Related papers: Estimation of spatial max-stable models using thre…
Inference over tails is performed by applying only the results of extreme value theory. Whilst such theory is well defined and flexible enough in the univariate case, multivariate inferential methods often require the imposition of…
Pairwise likelihood is a useful approximation to the full likelihood function for covariance estimation in high-dimensional context. It simplifies high-dimensional dependencies by combining marginal bivariate likelihood objects, thus making…
Maximum likelihood estimation is effective for identifying dynamical systems, but applying it to large networks becomes computationally prohibitive. This paper introduces a maximum likelihood estimation method that enables identification of…
Simple exponential smoothing is widely used in forecasting economic time series. This is because it is quick to compute and it generally delivers accurate forecasts. On the other hand, its multivariate version has received little attention…
The block maxima method in extreme value theory consists of fitting an extreme value distribution to a sample of block maxima extracted from a time series. Traditionally, the maxima are taken over disjoint blocks of observations.…
Applying standard statistical methods after model selection may yield inefficient estimators and hypothesis tests that fail to achieve nominal type-I error rates. The main issue is the fact that the post-selection distribution of the data…
In this paper, we provide a multiscale perspective on the problem of maximum marginal likelihood estimation. We consider and analyse a diffusion-based maximum marginal likelihood estimation scheme using ideas from multiscale dynamics. Our…
Several researchers have described two-part models with patient-specific stochastic processes for analysing longitudinal semicontinuous data. In theory, such models can offer greater flexibility than the standard two-part model with…
Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…
When passing from the univariate to the multivariate setting, modelling extremes becomes much more intricate. In this introductory exposition, classical multivariate extreme value theory is presented from the point of view of multivariate…
Extreme value analysis for time series is often based on the block maxima method, in particular for environmental applications. In the classical univariate case, the latter is based on fitting an extreme-value distribution to the sample of…
We derive uniform convergence rates for the maximum likelihood estimator and minimax lower bounds for parameter estimation in two-component location-scale Gaussian mixture models with unequal variances. We assume the mixing proportions of…
In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events -- the cornerstone also for the categoric (as…
We consider a method of pairwise variations for smooth optimization problems, which involve polyhedral constraints. It consists in making steps with respect to the difference of two selected extreme points of the feasible set together with…
Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…
This paper presents a new model for characterising temporal dependence in exceedances above a threshold. The model is based on the class of trawl processes, which are stationary, infinitely divisible stochastic processes. The model for…
The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…
The impact of an extreme climate event depends strongly on its geographical scale. Max-stable processes can be used for the statistical investigation of climate extremes and their spatial dependencies on a continuous area. Most existing…
The maximum likelihood approach is adapted to the problem of estimation of drift and diffusion functions of stochastic processes from measured time series. We reconcile a previously devised iterative procedure [Kleinhans et al., Physics…
Multivariate extreme value distributions are a common choice for modelling multivariate extremes. In high dimensions, however, the construction of flexible and parsimonious models is challenging. We propose to combine bivariate max-stable…