Related papers: Predicting the outcome of roulette
Tournament solutions provide methods for selecting the "best" alternatives from a tournament and have found applications in a wide range of areas. Previous work has shown that several well-known tournament solutions almost never rule out…
Tennis is a popular sport worldwide, boasting millions of fans and numerous national and international tournaments. Like many sports, tennis has benefitted from the popularity of rigorous record-keeping of game and player information, as…
Probabilistic rounding error analysis can yield much sharper bounds than classical worst-case theory, but existing results typically rely on zero-mean rounding errors and often leave the confidence parameter implicit. This work revisits…
The task of rendezvous (also called {\em gathering}) calls for a meeting of two or more mobile entities, starting from different positions in some environment. Those entities are called mobile agents or robots, and the environment can be a…
We give elementary examples within a framework for studying decisions under uncertainty where probabilities are only roughly known. The framework, in gambling terms, is that the size of a bet is proportional to the gambler's perceived…
"The chance to win given a certain move" is an easily obtainable quantity from data and often quoted in gaming statistics. It is also the fundamental quantity that reinforcement learning AI bases on. Unfortunately, this conditional…
Bayesian inference offers benefits over maximum likelihood, but it also comes with computational costs. Computing the posterior is typically intractable, as is marginalizing that posterior to form the posterior predictive distribution. In…
The original Kelly criterion provides a strategy to maximize the long-term growth of winnings in a sequence of simple Bernoulli bets with an edge, that is, when the expected return on each bet is positive. The objective of this work is to…
In this paper, we consider a stochastic process that may experience random reset events which relocate the system to its starting position. We focus our attention on a one-dimensional, monotonic continuous-time random walk with a constant…
Spin plays a pivotal role in ball-based sports. Estimating spin becomes a key skill due to its impact on the ball's trajectory and bouncing behavior. Spin cannot be observed directly, making it inherently challenging to estimate. In table…
This work is concerned with the rating of players/teams in face-to-face games with three possible outcomes: loss, win, and draw. This is one of the fundamental problems in sport analytics, where the very simple and popular, non-trivial…
Machine learning, classification and prediction models have applications across a range of fields. Sport analytics is an increasingly popular application, but most existing work is focused on automated refereeing in mainstream sports and…
The rodeo algorithm has been proposed recently as an efficient method in quantum computing for projection of a given initial state onto a state of fixed energy for systems with discrete spectra. In the initial formulation of the rodeo…
Robotic interaction in fast-paced environments presents a substantial challenge, particularly in tasks requiring the prediction of dynamic, non-stationary objects for timely and accurate responses. An example of such a task is ping-pong,…
Probability forecasts are intended to account for the uncertainties inherent in forecasting. It is suggested that from an end-user's point of view probability is not necessarily sufficient to reflect uncertainties that are not simply the…
We introduce the Colonel Blotto game with favoritism, an extension of the famous Colonel Blotto game where the winner-determination rule is generalized to include pre-allocations and asymmetry of the players' resources effectiveness on each…
With the aid of mathematical modelling (basic tool is the random walk with absorbing barriers) we derive subsequent formulas to study the effect of different versions of possible rules. For different rules the probability of winning a game,…
The Elo rating system is a highly successful ranking algorithm for games of skill where, by construction, one team wins and the other loses. A primary limitation of the original Elo algorithm is its inability to predict information beyond a…
A decision maker observes the evolving state of the world while constantly trying to predict the next state given the history of past states. The ability to benefit from such predictions depends not only on the ability to recognize patters…
Financial market forecasting remains a formidable challenge despite the surge in computational capabilities and machine learning advancements. While numerous studies have underscored the precision of computer-generated market predictions,…