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The combination of the Bayesian game and learning has a rich history, with the idea of controlling a single agent in a system composed of multiple agents with unknown behaviors given a set of types, each specifying a possible behavior for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-21 Tongxin Li , Tinashe Handina , Shaolei Ren , Adam Wierman

Probabilistic model checking is a technique for formal automated reasoning about software or hardware systems that operate in the context of uncertainty or stochasticity. It builds upon ideas and techniques from a diverse range of fields,…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2023-08-08 David Parker

Currently the Dempster-Shafer based algorithm and Uniform Random Probability based algorithm are the preferred method of resolving security games, in which defenders are able to identify attackers and only strategy remained ambiguous.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-08-11 Hossein Khani , Mohsen Afsharchi

The framework of uncoupled online learning in multiplayer games has made significant progress in recent years. In particular, the development of time-varying games has considerably expanded its modeling capabilities. However, current regret…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-08-18 Aymeric Capitaine , Etienne Boursier , Eric Moulines , Michael I. Jordan , Alain Durmus

This paper presents a novel approach for optimizing betting strategies in sports gambling by integrating Von Neumann-Morgenstern Expected Utility Theory, deep learning techniques, and advanced formulations of the Kelly Criterion. By…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-27 Vélez Jiménez , Román Alberto , Lecuanda Ontiveros , José Manuel , Edgar Possani

It is a long-standing goal of artificial intelligence (AI) to be superior to human beings in decision making. Games are suitable for testing AI capabilities of making good decisions in non-numerical tasks. In this paper, we develop a new AI…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Ran Tian , Nan Li , Ilya Kolmanovsky , Anouck Girard

Every student in statistics or data science learns early on that when the sample size largely exceeds the number of variables, fitting a logistic model produces estimates that are approximately unbiased. Every student also learns that there…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-08 Pragya Sur , Emmanuel J. Candes

We propose a new approach to Bayesian prediction that caters for models with a large number of parameters and is robust to model misspecification. Given a class of high-dimensional (but parametric) predictive models, this new approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-13 David T. Frazier , Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Gael M. Martin , Bonsoo Koo

This work introduces an online Bayesian game-theoretic method for behavior identification in multi-agent dynamical systems. By casting Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman optimality conditions as linear-in-parameter residuals, the method enables fast…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-09 Francesco Bianchin , Robert Lefringhausen , Sandra Hirche

In this paper, we investigate the optimal strategies in the Werewolf Game-a widely played strategic social deduction game involving two opposing factions-from a game-theoretic perspective. We consider two scenarios: the game without a…

General Economics · Economics 2025-10-20 ST Wang

We propose a general approach to quantitatively assessing the risk and vulnerability of artificial intelligence (AI) systems to biased decisions. The guiding principle of the proposed approach is that any AI algorithm must outperform a…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Shun Ide , Allison Blunt , Djallel Bouneffouf

Two-player zero-sum repeated games are well understood. Computing the value of such a game is straightforward. Additionally, if the payoffs are dependent on a random state of the game known to one, both, or neither of the players, the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2009-11-05 Paul Cuff

We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. Second, we assume that the dynamics of the mortality rates can be modelled…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-29 Angelos Alexopoulos , Petros Dellaportas , Jonathan J. Forster

Logistic regression is an important statistical tool for assessing the probability of an outcome based upon some predictive variables. Standard methods can only deal with precisely known data, however many datasets have uncertainties which…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-09 Nicholas Gray , Scott Ferson

We discuss a connection between Bell nonlocality and Bayesian games. This link offers interesting perspectives for Bayesian games, namely to allow the players to receive advice in the form of nonlocal correlations, for instance using…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2013-07-10 Nicolas Brunner , Noah Linden

This study employs gamified experiments to investigate and refine the Schelling Model of Segregation, a framework that demonstrates how individual preferences can lead to systemic segregation. Using a movement selection algorithm derived…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-01-15 Aleix Nicolás Olivé , Luce Prignano , Dimitri Marinelli , Emanuele Cozzo

In spam and malware detection, attackers exploit randomization to obfuscate malicious data and increase their chances of evading detection at test time; e.g., malware code is typically obfuscated using random strings or byte sequences to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-07 Samuel Rota Bulò , Battista Biggio , Ignazio Pillai , Marcello Pelillo , Fabio Roli

Structure learning of Bayesian networks is an important problem that arises in numerous machine learning applications. In this work, we present a novel approach for learning the structure of Bayesian networks using the solution of an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-11-22 Tuhin Sahai , Stefan Klus , Michael Dellnitz

This work introduces an automated testing approach that employs agents controlling game characters to detect potential bugs within a game level. Harnessing the power of Bayesian Optimization (BO) to execute sample-efficient search, the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Carlos Celemin

This paper presents a potential game approach for distributed cooperative selection of informative sensors, when the goal is to maximize the mutual information between the measurement variables and the quantities of interest. It is proved…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-03-05 Han-Lim Choi , Su-Jin Lee