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We develop Bayesian state space methods for modelling changes to the mean level or temporal correlation structure of an observed time series due to intermittent coupling with an unobserved process. Novel intervention methods are proposed to…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-08 Philip G. Sansom , Daniel B. Williamson , David B. Stephenson

In this paper, we analyze the sea surface temperature obtained from the global drifter program. The experimental Fourier power spectrum shows a two-decade power-law behavior as $E_{\theta}(f)\propto f^{-7/3}$ in the frequency domain.…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2019-05-08 Yongxiang Huang , Lipo Wang

Tropical East and West Pacific Oceans display differences in their vertical velocity (or omega) profiles. The East Pacific is characterized by bottom-heavy profiles, while the West Pacific is characterized by top-heavy profiles. Although…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-19 Fiaz Ahmed , J. David Neelin

As IPCC ARs stated, global warming is estimated based on the average from 1850 to 1900 (global average temperature of preindustrialization estimated from relatively sparse observations). Given the impossibility of massive increasing…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-10 Qingxiang Li , Zichen Li , Xuqian Li , Zengyun Hu , Aiguo Dai , Wenjie Dong , Boyin Huang , Zhihong Jiang , Panmao Zhai , Tianjun Zhou , Phil Jones

We employ a statistical model of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) tracks to investigate the relationship between sea-surface temperature (SST) and North American TC landfall rates. The track model is conditioned on summer SST in the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2008-01-08 Timothy Hall , Stephen Jewson

Atmospheric transient eddies and low-frequency flow contribution to the ocean surface wave climate in the North Atlantic during boreal winter is investigated (1980 - 2016). We conduct a set of numerical simulations with a state-of-the-art…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-06-10 Margarita Markina , Josh Studholme , Sergey Gulev

The evolution of mean sea-level atmospheric pressure since 1850 is analyzed using singular spectrum analysis. Maps of the main components (the trends) reveal striking symmetries of order 3 and 4. The northern hemisphere (NH) displays a set…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-01-20 F. Lopes , V. Courtillot , J-L. Le Mouël

The reconstruction of ocean subsurface temperature (OST) using satellite remote sensing data holds significant scientific value for advancing the understanding of ocean dynamics and climate variability. However, the scarcity of subsurface…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-05 Ming Shan Loo , Wengen Li , Xudong Jiang , Hailiang Cheng , Zhifei Zhang , Jihong Guan , Yichao Zhang

Thermal images at different wavelengths probe varying subsurface depths of planetary bodies, and therefore can inform us about their compositions, thermophysical properties, and impact histories. We identified six archival observations of…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2025-12-19 Cole Meyer , Maria Camarca , Katherine de Kleer , Alexander Thelen , Christopher Chyba , Bryan Butler

Complex ocean systems such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play key roles in the climate, and current models predict shifts in their strength and area under climate change. However, the physical processes underlying these changes are…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-19 William Yik , Maike Sonnewald , Mariana C. A. Clare , Redouane Lguensat

Advances in data assimilation (DA) methods have greatly improved the accuracy of Earth system predictions. To fuse multi-source data and reconstruct the nonlinear evolution missing from observations, geoscientists are developing…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-19 Qingyu Zheng , Guijun Han , Wei Li , Lige Cao , Gongfu Zhou , Haowen Wu , Qi Shao , Ru Wang , Xiaobo Wu , Xudong Cui , Hong Li , Xuan Wang

Continuous GPS and broadband seismic monitoring have revealed a variety of disparate slip patterns especially in shallow dipping subduction zones, among which regular earthquakes, slow slip events and silent quakes1,2. Slow slip events are…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-05-13 Christophe Voisin , Jean-Robert Grasso , Eric Larose , François Renard

The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such tipping can have significant climate impacts, it is important to understand the mechanisms at play…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-24 Swinda K. J. Falkena , Henk A. Dijkstra , Anna S. von der Heydt

Despite the importance and vulnerability of small island nations and their ecosystems, they frequently have insufficient observations to provide baseline or long-term perspectives on climate variability and change, and global model…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-07-18 Kristopher B. Karnauskas , Jeffrey P. Donnelly , Kevin J. Anchukaitis

Atmosphere and ocean are coupled via air-sea interactions. The atmospheric conditions fuel the ocean circulation and its variability, but the extent to which ocean processes can affect the atmosphere at decadal time scales remains unclear.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-07-08 Navid C. Constantinou , Andrew McC. Hogg

Despite the low solar irradiation it receives, Neptune shows a very active atmosphere with some of the most intense dynamics observed in Solar System atmospheres. Characterizing the atmospheric temperature profiles of the planet is a key to…

We performed a number of statistical analysis methods on the historical data for the air temperature at 2 m above the ground and its range, as reported by the database of NASA known as POWER, which stands for Prediction Of Worldwide Energy…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-10-31 Osama A. Marzouk

There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Thomas Laepple , Stephen Jewson

Past research has shown that multiple climate subsystems might undergo abrupt shifts, such as the Arctic Winter sea ice or the Amazon rainforest, but there are large uncertainties regarding their timing and spatial extent. In this study we…

Turbulence is indispensable to redistribute nutrients for all life forms larger than microbial, on land and in the ocean. Yet, the development of deep-sea turbulence was not studied in three dimensions to date. As a disproportionate…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-01-09 Hans van Haren
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