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By means of the techniques of Boolean valued analysis, we provide a transfer principle between duality theory of classical convex risk measures and duality theory of conditional risk measures. Namely, a conditional risk measure can be…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2019-10-09 José Miguel Zapata

Most high-dimensional estimation and prediction methods propose to minimize a cost function (empirical risk) that is written as a sum of losses associated to each data point. In this paper we focus on the case of non-convex losses, which is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-01-17 Song Mei , Yu Bai , Andrea Montanari

To provide a solid analytic foundation for the module approach to conditional risk measures, this paper establishes a complete random convex analysis over random locally convex modules by simultaneously considering the two kinds of…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2013-08-03 Tiexin Guo , Shien Zhao , Xiaolin Zeng

This paper studies distributionally robust optimization for a rich class of risk measures with ambiguity sets defined by $\phi$-divergences. The risk measures are allowed to be non-linear in probabilities, are represented by Choquet…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-15 Guanyu Jin , Roger J. A. Laeven , Dick den Hertog

In this paper, we propose a novel association measure for longitudinal studies based on the traditional definition of relative risk. In a Markovian fashion, such a proposal takes into account the information content regarding the previous…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-27 Lina Buitrago , Juan Sosa , Oscar Melo

Systemic risk measures are crucial for the stability of financial markets, yet classical formulations fail to capture the complexity of market volatility. We propose a new framework for systemic risk measurement on the variable-exponent…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-25 Fei Sun , Jieming Zhou

Despite decades of research in risk management, most of the literature has focused on scalar risk measures (like e.g. Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall). While such scalar measures provide compact and tractable summaries, they provide a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-28 Michele Bonollo , Martino Grasselli , Gianmarco Mori , Havva Nilsu Oz

Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms,…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-21 Henrik Hult , Jens Svensson

We discuss recent work for causal inference and predictive robustness in a unifying way. The key idea relies on a notion of probabilistic invariance or stability: it opens up new insights for formulating causality as a certain risk…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-21 Peter Bühlmann

Optimization of conditional convex risk measure is a central theme in dynamic portfolio selection theory, which has not yet systematically studied in the previous literature perhaps since conditional convex risk measures are neither random…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-24 Tiexin Guo

Despite their numerous successes, there are many scenarios where adversarial risk metrics do not provide an appropriate measure of robustness. For example, test-time perturbations may occur in a probabilistic manner rather than being…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-03 Benjie Wang , Stefan Webb , Tom Rainforth

The inf-convolution of risk measures is directly related to risk sharing and general equilibrium, and it has attracted considerable attention in mathematical finance and insurance problems. However, the theory is restricted to finite sets…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-03-22 Marcelo Brutti Righi , Marlon Ruoso Moresco

A one-to-one correspondence is drawn between law invariant risk measures and divergences, which we define as functionals of pairs of probability measures on arbitrary standard Borel spaces satisfying a few natural properties. Divergences…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-06-07 Daniel Lacker

Expanding on techniques of concentration of measure, we develop a quantitative framework for modeling liquidity risk using convex risk measures. The fundamental objects of study are curves of the form $(\rho(\lambda X))_{\lambda \ge 0}$,…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-10-28 Daniel Lacker

In the present contribution we characterize law determined convex risk measures that have convex level sets at the level of distributions. By relaxing the assumptions in Weber (2006), we show that these risk measures can be identified with…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-11-04 Freddy Delbaen , Fabio Bellini , Valeria Bignozzi , Johanna F. Ziegel

This paper addresses the issues of conservativeness and computational complexity of probabilistic robustness analysis. We solve both issues by defining a new sampling strategy and robustness measure. The new measure is shown to be much less…

Applications · Statistics 2008-05-12 Xinjia Chen , Kemin Zhou , Jorge L. Aravena

Uncertainty is prevalent in engineering design, data-driven problems, and decision making broadly. Due to inherent risk-averseness and ambiguity about assumptions, it is common to address uncertainty by formulating and solving conservative…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-05 Johannes O. Royset

This paper studies convergence of empirical risks in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS). A conventional assumption in the existing research is that empirical training data do not contain any noise but this may not be satisfied in some…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-19 Shaoyan Guo , Huifu Xu , Liwei Zhang

We consider a distributionally robust stochastic optimization problem and formulate it as a stochastic two-level composition optimization problem with the use of the mean--semideviation risk measure. In this setting, we consider a single…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-12 Landi Zhu , Mert Gürbüzbalaban , Andrzej Ruszczyński

Let $\rho$ be a general law--invariant convex risk measure, for instance the average value at risk, and let $X$ be a financial loss, that is, a real random variable. In practice, either the true distribution $\mu$ of $X$ is unknown, or the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-02 Daniel Bartl , Ludovic Tangpi