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Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic point processes for modeling self-exciting behavior, in which the occurrence of one event increases the probability of other events occurring. These…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-19 Alba Bernabeu , Jorge Mateu

In this paper, we establish a spatial central limit theorem for a large class of supercritical branching, not necessarily symmetric, Markov processes with spatially dependent branching mechanisms satisfying a second moment condition. This…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-02 Yan-Xia Ren , Renming Song , Rui Zhang

Multi-dimensional Hawkes process (MHP) is a class of self and mutually exciting point processes that find wide range of applications -- from prediction of earthquakes to modelling of order books in high frequency trading. This paper makes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-05 Sobin Joseph , Lekhapriya Dheeraj Kashyap , Shashi Jain

The Hawkes model is suitable for describing self and mutually exciting random events. In addition, the exponential decay in the Hawkes process allows us to calculate the moment properties in the model. However, due to the complexity of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-24 Kyungsub Lee

The hierarchical Pitman-Yor process is a discrete random measure used as a prior in Bayesian nonparametrics. It is motivated by the study of groups of clustered data exhibiting power law behavior. Our focus in this paper is on the Gaussian…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-13 Shui Feng , J. E. Paguyo

A point process for event arrivals in high frequency trading is presented. The intensity is the product of a Hawkes process and high dimensional functions of covariates derived from the order book. Conditions for stationarity of the process…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-12 Luca Mucciante , Alessio Sancetta

Hawkes process provides an effective statistical framework for analyzing the time-dependent interaction of neuronal spiking activities. Although utilized in many real applications, the classic Hawkes process is incapable of modelling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-23 Feng Zhou , Yixuan Zhang , Jun Zhu

We study a multivariate Hawkes process as a model for time-continuous relational event networks. The model does not assume the network to be known, it includes covariates, and it allows for both common drivers, parameters common to all the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-08 Alexander Kreiss , Enno Mammen , Wolfgang Polonik

We consider a discrete-time version of a Hawkes process defined as a Poisson auto-regressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. We allow these parameters to take on negative values, modelling inhibition. More…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-19 Manon Costa , Pascal Maillard , Anthony Muraro

In this paper we study the frequentist properties of Bayesian approaches in linear high dimensional Hawkes processes in a sparse regime where the number of interaction functions acting on each component of the Hawkes process is much smaller…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-29 Judith Rousseau , Vincent Rivoirard , Déborah Sulem

In this paper, we establish general scaling limits for nearly unstable Hawkes processes in a mean-field regime by extending the method introduced by Jaisson and Rosenbaum. Under a mild asymptotic criticality condition on the self-exciting…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-22 Grégoire Szymanski , Wei Xu

We show that the jumps correlation matrix of a multivariate Hawkes process is related to the Hawkes kernel matrix through a system of Wiener-Hopf integral equations. A Wiener-Hopf argument allows one to prove that this system (in which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-16 Emmanuel Bacry , Jean-Francois Muzy

We study inhomogeneous random graphs with a finite type space. For a natural generalization of the model as a dynamic network-valued process, the paper establishes the following results: (a) Functional central limit theorems for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-22 Shankar Bhamidi , Amarjit Budhiraja , Akshay Sakanaveeti

Constraint based causal structure learning for point processes require empirical tests of local independence. Existing tests require strong model assumptions, e.g. that the true data generating model is a Hawkes process with no latent…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-26 Nikolaj Thams , Niels Richard Hansen

We consider a classical risk process with arrival of claims following a non-stationary Hawkes process. We study the asymptotic regime when the premium rate and the baseline intensity of the claims arrival process are large, and claim size…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-22 Zailei Cheng , Youngsoo Seol

We model the arrival of mid-price changes in the E-Mini S&P futures contract as a self-exciting Hawkes process. Using several estimation methods, we find that the Hawkes kernel is power-law with a decay exponent close to -1.15 at short…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-12 Stephen J. Hardiman , Nicolas Bercot , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of nearly unstable Hawkes processes whose regression kernel has $L^1$ norm strictly greater than one and close to one as time goes to infinity. We find that,the scaling size determines…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Chenguang Liu , Liping Xu , An Zhang

The Hawkes process is a simple point process with wide applications in finance, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. The Hawkes process is defined for continuous-time setting. However, data is also recorded in a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-23 Haixu Wang

We study a multivariate, non-linear Hawkes process $Z^N$ on a $q$-Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi-graph with $N$ nodes. Each vertex is either excitatory (probability $p$) or inhibitory (probability $1-p$). If $p\neq\tfrac12$, we take the mean-field…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-27 Jakob Stiefel

The Hawkes process is a model for counting the number of arrivals to a system which exhibits the self-exciting property - that one arrival creates a heightened chance of further arrivals in the near future. The model, and its…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-20 Patrick J. Laub , Young Lee , Philip K. Pollett , Thomas Taimre